Brian Rudman: A bit of weeding needed in battle to be super mayor

The one truism reinforced by the recent UMR Research poll on who Aucklanders want as their first super mayor is that you have to be in to win.

So it's hardly surprising that the only declared candidate, transmogrified Auckland City Mayor John Banks, is leading by the proverbial country mile.

The results are also a wake-up call that shrinking violet "non-candidates" on the centre-left like Manukau Mayor Len Brown and Auckland Regional Council chairman Mike Lee seem to have heard.

On Wednesday night, they were battling away on Triangle Television's Super City special debate (now streaming at http://www.tritv.co.nz/) as though they were up there on the hustings.

With them was an irascible Waitakere City Mayor Bob Harvey who, given his number-two position in the poll, might well have been regretting his "goodbye cruel world" statement in his February 25, 2009, mayoral report.

Written before release of the royal commission's report, it noted the speculation swirling about and declared: "As for the debate around mayors and who will next preside, count me out. I'm not wasting my time or effort in that bun fight."

His second position on 10 per cent to Mr Bank's 17 per cent must, shall we say, be sorely tempting a born politician like Mr Harvey to change his mind. Especially as he's well ahead of his centre-left rivals like Mr Brown (6 per cent), former Auckland Central MP Judith Tizard (5 per cent) and Mr Lee (1 per cent.)

Wily campaigner that he is, the front-runner chose not to give credibility to his potential rivals, and stayed away. But as yesterday's headlines showed, if you choose to run an 18-month-long campaign, you're inevitably going to get tripped up somewhere along the way, however much you try to set the rules.

After yesterday's revelations about $2.5 million losses in the past month at his council's entertainment arm, The Edge, one can bet that Mr Banks will not be making any more snide remarks about the "incompetence" of Mr Lee's ARC in losing $1.79 million on last December's soccer match starring David Beckham.

UMR says Mr Banks is the clear front-runner, but is vulnerable to a "stop Banks" candidate if the contest effectively develops into a two-horse field.

That's an unlikely "if", given the propensity for the centre-left in local body politics to splinter and the possibility of a celebrity or two like broadcasters Paul Holmes or Willie Jackson starting to believe their own publicity and standing, splitting the vote unpredictably.

The "at large" mayor is still going to need a majority on the Auckland Council to get his way. The way to ensure this is to create a ticket, and on this, Mr Banks' rightist friends are way ahead of their rivals.

Earlier this week, Manukau's right-wing Peoples Choice organisation announced a merger with Auckland City's venerable band of power brokers, the Auckland Citizens and Ratepayers Association. Talks are also under way between Auckland Citrat and fellow travellers in North Shore and Waitakere City.

On the other side, Mr Brown has been sounding out Labour and the Greens for backing for his as-yet-undeclared campaign. However, veteran activists like Matt McCarten and Chris Trotter are pushing for Mr Lee as the centre-left standard bearer.

As far as the UMR poll goes, Mr Harvey is ahead of both of them. So is Judith Tizard, who is playing the tease by refusing to rule herself out, jokingly (I think) pointing out in a recent interview that at 53, "I am the same age as my mother was when she became Mayor of Auckland".

Both Mr Lee and Mr Brown share one thing in common - they're not well known. When asked whether the people named would be good or bad candidates, 56 per cent said they were unsure/never heard of/didn't know enough about Mr Brown to answer, while 65 per cent gave the same answer of Mr Lee. Of those left, 19 per cent thought Mr Brown would be good, and 8 per cent Mr Lee.

If you wanted to put a positive spin on this, you could argue that this gives both plenty of room to grow.

But first their supporters have to decide which one to weed out. Or to select someone else they can all support. Or stand aside and watch a free-for-all and, as UMR Research says, let Mr Banks "probably win".