KEY POINTS:
Dick Hubbard sets out today on one of politics' hardest journeys - winning a second term as Mayor of Auckland City.
After officially launching his campaign at a central-city bistro, he has a day of photo opportunities: whizzing around the city on public transport, showing off the skeletal
remains of the Jean Batten building and making a podcast at Pt England School.
Reality kicks in at 6pm when he joins six other mayoral hopefuls for the first mayoral debate, hosted by the Gay Auckland Business Association.
The candidates will each have four minutes to say how they would engage with the gay and lesbian community, but it is a wider audience they will be addressing.
Tonight is the start of a 37-day popularity contest with 120,000 or more votes up for grabs. The goal line is October 13, the same weekend the nation will hold its breath for the semifinals of the Rugby World Cup.
As Herald columnist Michele Hewitson noted when interviewing mayoral hopeful Alex Swney, we start hating our mayors about three minutes after we have voted for them.
Christine Fletcher was a one-term mayor. John Banks was a one-term mayor. And Dick Hubbard? A Herald-DigiPoll survey does not look good for the cereal maker-turned-politician. The poll put Mr Banks on 43.2 per cent, nearly six points clear of Mr Hubbard on 37.4 per cent.
Mr Hubbard rode a wave of anti-John Banks feeling to wallop the former National Cabinet minister by nearly 20,000 votes in 2004.
Since sweeping to office, he has looked anything but a leader confidently in control of the country's largest city. Bruce Hucker, the Queen St tree massacre, the waterfront stadium and soaring property and water rates have dogged the political novice.
On a positive note, the 60-year-old has put a stop to chicken-coop apartments, tightened protection of heritage buildings, laid 150km of new footpaths and made progress on opening up the waterfront for citizens.
It hasn't come cheaply. Rates have risen 21.4 per cent overall and by 32.7 per cent for households, but Mr Hubbard says this is the cost of being in catch-up mode and turning Auckland into a lifestyle city.
Bollocks, says Mr Banks, whose slogan is "affordable progress". He is promising to do his best to hold rates to inflation - not the 37 per cent forecast over the next three years under current policy. These figures do not include the huge borrowing programme Mr Hubbard and his City Vision/Labour-controlled council kicked off this year to soften rate rises.
Mr Banks is offering a new style and new policies, such as support for public transport and electrification of rail. Voters will decide if they believe the leopard has changed its spots.
The big uncertainty in the contest is Heart of the City chief executive Alex Swney, the flamboyant businessman aiming at voters who are unimpressed with Mr Hubbard and do not want Mr Banks back.
He had not declared when July's poll was taken, but has a strong set of policies - a proportion of GST in lieu of rates, stop using water bills as a rates rise in disguise and opening up the downtown wharves to the public. Well known in city circles, it remains to be seen if Mr Swney can carry his message across the rest of the city.
Adult entertainment businessman Steve Crow is another name to watch. He drew tens of thousands to central Auckland two weeks ago for the Boobs on Bikes parade but it was sex, not politics, the hordes had come for.
Mr Crow wants to dismantle city hall, be a non-executive mayor effectively running the city and push for a single supercity. He polled 7.9 per cent in July's poll.
Behind him on 6.3 per cent was one of three activists standing for council, Lisa Prager, known for wearing cowboy hats and rarking up councillors over public assets. Other activists campaigning to keep local assets in public hands are Coralie van Camp and Elaine West.
First-term Labour councillor Dr John Hinchcliff was on 5.2 per cent. The former head of Auckland University of Technology is standing as an independent and pushing transport, sustainability and support for a regional council while retaining strong local government.