Housing market: House sales keep falling as first-home buyers drive demand – The Front Page

Sales volumes have continued to decline across New Zealand’s housing market.

It marks a third consecutive monthly fall and extends the subdued start to 2026 – even as property values remain broadly stable.

But beneath the surface, the picture is uneven.

The Auckland market remains soft, first-home buyers are propping up demand and the rental market is showing signs of strain.

At the same time, global uncertainty and inflation risks are starting to cloud the outlook.

Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson told The Front Page that the persistence of weaker sales suggested something more than a simple start-of-year adjustment.

“January’s weakness could have been explained by activity being pulled forward into December to nab a generous cash-back, but that softness has carried through February and March as well,” Davidson said.

“We’ve now had three subdued months in a row, which indicates a weaker first quarter than expected. It’s not a sharp downturn, but it does show that confidence is still muted and buyers are taking their time.”

Davidson said that first-home buyers are active.

“First home buyers continue to play a major role in New Zealand’s market, accounting for more than 27% of purchases nationally across the first quarter, well above their long-term average of around 22%,” he said.

“Lower house prices compared to a few years ago, reduced mortgage rates and KiwiSaver withdrawals are all helping.”

In Auckland, their share was higher again at around 30%, with even stronger concentrations in other parts of the country, including Hamilton (33%) and the wider Wellington area (37%).

Cotality’s latest data shows sales volumes in March were down -2.4% compared to the same time last year, following falls of -7.6% in January and -3.1% in February.

Listen to the full episode to hear more about:

• Regional differences
• First-home buyers
• Renting and investor demand
• Outlook for 2026.

The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5pm. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.

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