Health Minister Pete Hodgson looks likely to be a major casualty in today's Cabinet reshuffle, in which the Prime Minister will unveil a more drastic revamp of her ministerial line-up than predicted.
Mr Hodgson is expected to be axed from the politically sensitive Health portfolio after less than
two years in the job.
Shifting him to a less taxing portfolio means Helen Clark has three major portfolios to allocate today - Health, Education and Social Development.
The other vacancies were foreshadowed last week by Steve Maharey's announcement that he will leave Parliament next year.
There has been no indication that Finance Minister Michael Cullen will step down, but that possibility cannot be discounted because of the electoral damage his resistance to personal tax cuts could cause.
In that event, party conservative Phil Goff will be his likely successor.
The Justice and Law and Order area is in for a shake-up
Annette King is tipped to be given a super-justice role with other ministers answering to her.
Clayton Cosgrove is tipped to get Corrections from Damien O'Connor.
The favourite to fill the education post is rising star David Cunliffe. Former teacher Chris Carter is an outside chance for Education, but is also seen as a contender for Environment.
If Dr Cullen stays in Finance, Mr Goff could take over Health.
With an eye to party leadership next term, Mr Goff may be happy to relinquish Trade and associated foreign roles in favour of a domestic social-oriented portfolio.
But if Dr Cullen was planning to step down next year, Mr Goff could take Economic Development from Trevor Mallard and step up his role as Associate Finance Minister.
First-term MP Maryan Street may get Housing from Chris Carter. She is a former Housing New Zealand board member.
Lawyer Charles Chauvel is in line to get Labour from Ruth Dyson, and Shane Jones can expect to get a Cabinet seat.
Rotorua MP Steve Chadwick will get a ministerial post outside Cabinet.
* Additional reporting Paula Oliver and Claire Trevett.
