KEY POINTS:
Late spring is likely to be warmer than usual, conditions set to - fingers and toes crossed - carry right the way into summer, making for happy camping countrywide.
However, northeastern parts of the country could be in for a little more wet stuff than usual.
The latest
seasonal climate outlook from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research's (Niwa) National Climate Centre says weak La Nina conditions that have developed over the Pacific Ocean mean there is a 80-90 per cent chance temperatures will be average or above average for the rest of the year.
La Nina conditions mean weaker than normal westerly winds across the country, with more winds coming from the east and northeast. As well as higher temparatures, if you're in the northeast of the country, it's likely to rain more than usual, while those down south can expect to stay drier, says Niwa principal climate scientist Dr Jim Salinger.
He said there was a "fairly good" chance the La Nina conditions would continue until the end of summer.
If that were the case, those in the west and south of the South Island would be basking in sunshine, while people camping in Northland could get a little wet. "Though there could be fabulous spells of fine weather, lasting a couple of weeks, [it] depends when you take your holiday."
There was also an 80 per cent chance of an ex-tropical cyclone passing within 500km of the country - Northland and Gisborne most at risk of being sideswiped.
"It may be a bit warmer and a bit wetter in the northern part of New Zealand," said Salinger.
Met Service weather ambassador Bob McDavitt said the La Nina episode meant high-pressure systems (anticyclones) would be more intense than normal.
"These anticyclones will bring extended dry periods to central and eastern areas with light winds and relatively clear skies increasing the chance of spring frosts."
He said the typical spring pattern of periods of unsettled weather from fronts and westerly winds was also likely and those in eastern districts could expect some hail in October and November.
La Nina would make for humid conditions in northern and eastern areas, north of Taupo.
"If you don't like humidity it would be better to head south for your camping trip."
The sunniest summer weather would be between Taupo and Nelson, he said, as well as through Westland.
Now for more specific, slightly more alternative weather predictions. Lunar cycle weatherman Ken Ring, who produces a yearly almanac describing the weather on any given day a year ahead told the Herald on Sunday "we were in for a longer and warmer summer than usual. I would say a degree warmer on average."
February would be very dry and there'd be 10 days of settled weather round the country before Christmas. He tipped Auckland and Canterbury to be among the best summer spots.
He said winds wouldn't give too many problems. "There won't be any really gusty stuff until March." But he predicted a cold snap and snowfall in the south early next April.
He said October would be very wet and miserable, especially in the North Island while November would become much more settled.
Psychic Christine A. Clark, who beat the late Augie Auer in a weather forecasting competition run by The Aucklander newspaper last year, told the Herald on Sunday she could see a very long, dry summer ahead. She said the best places to holiday would be Northland, the Bay of Plenty and Southland.
"The great Kiwi summer is finally upon us."
