Heavy rain forecast for drought-ravaged Hawke's Bay

Into the eye of a storm, looking north from the coast south of Napier today with up to 100mm of rain forecast in some areas this week. Photo / Paul Taylor

Drought-ravaged Hawke's Bay is looking like getting some long-awaited relief with forecasts of up to 100 millimetres of rain in parts of the region this week.

With some rain having already fallen in the region, national forecasting agency MetService on Tuesday issued a "heavy rain watch" notice for the 24 hours from 9am on Thursday, saying there would be periods of heavy rain, with amounts in some areas possibly approaching "warning criteria."

But a meteorologist told Hawke's Bay Today that with the region having had long-periods of below-average monthly rainfall over at least the last two years, whatever rain does come over the next few days "probably won't make enough of a dent to make everyone happy."

While most areas had less than 10mm overnight Monday-Tuesday, there were falls of 40-50mm at the Hawke's Bay Regional Council Moorcock and Glenwood recording stations in the Ruahine Range, with some impacts on the river system, including the Tukituki.

The meteorologist said that wherever the "low" system bringing the conditions goes "a decent top-up" can be expected.

"It's quite a complicated system, so tracking the path is difficult," he said.

Weather observer WeatherWatch says a "new low" is moving in from the northwest and bringing heavy eastern rain.

"Latest estimates WeatherWatch has show 60 to 100mm possible along the eastern North Island over the days ahead," the company said. "Rainfall totals vary across the region and those in the ranges will likely have greater totals than those on the plains."

Rough weather brews over Te Mata Peak and Mt Kahuranaki on Tuesday. Photo / Paul Taylor

"Some localised areas my receive 100 to 150mm. Also, northern Hawke's Bay may have twice the totals of those further south."

The rain is also expected to fall across the North Island and the upper South Island.

According to regional council figures, most of Hawke's Bay had below average rainfall in July and August, but on average over the last two years only one in every four months has had above average rainfall, including the prolonged dry last year.