It’s uncomfortable to say this while our national crisis unfolds but political calculations are changing right now.
The politicians know it. They’re all calculating Cyclone Gabrielle in their heads.
Families are still living out of evacuation centres and desperately trying to find their loved ones, but our country’s politiciansare working out if this unfolding crisis helps them win an election or not.
As brutal as that is, this is how politics works. It is at least part of the reason why Prime Ministers and Ministers throw on NEMA jackets and jump on helicopters to fly to ground zero.
Some of it is to provide moral support to heartbroken communities. Some of it is to understand the scale of what they need to do. Some of it is simply to chase time in front of cameras.
The calculation currently favours Labour. At least in the short term.
A crisis always favours the incumbent simply because it means more publicity for the person already in the PM’s job.
Labour’s lucky that person is Chris Hipkins. The man is doing his job like he’s been in it for 25 months, not 25 days.
It’s hard to believe Hipkins has been PM for less than a month. He’s hardly put a foot wrong. Even Act’s David Seymour has conceded it’s hard to fault the Government’s response.
Hipkins has had a baptism of fire. He’s already faced two major crises: the biggest weather event to ever hit Auckland, followed by the biggest weather event to ever hit New Zealand.
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins receiving a hug from Tukituki MP Anna Lorck as he arrives at an emergency management centre in Hastings last week. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Coming through both without stuffing up is no small achievement. Hipkins is not just confronting reality. He’s also confronting the ghost of his predecessor. Dealing with a crisis was Jacinda Ardern’s strength. Her hugs in front of cameras earned her international praise.
Hipkins’ style is different. He brings less pathos and more pragmatism. Hipkins is yet to hug anyone in front of TV cameras. He might find that means he’s less of a camera-magnet and thus he could end up with less TV coverage than Jacinda Ardern.
But a different style is not necessarily a bad thing. For at least some voters it’s a welcome relief to have less of the performative stuff and more of the straight-talking stuff.
On the things that matter - addressing the issues and handing out the relief money - Hipkins is so far more than holding his own. Which makes him the real deal for Labour. He’s good at the stuff Jacinda Ardern was good at, but he’s also good at the stuff she was rubbish at like nuking unpopular policies and lifting Labour’s vote back up.
For National the political calculation is miserable. Chris Luxon is irrelevant. He will be starved of air time as long as this Cyclone keeps serving up images of unbelievable destruction and heart-breaking accounts of loss.
National already knows it has to sit tight for a couple of months until the cyclone coverage is replaced by a normal news cycle. But knowing something and then maintaining the discipline to stick to that are two different things. A fortnight of no real coverage can feel like forever.
This will get harder for National. Labour’s polls will probably climb, National’s will probably fall. They’ll get antsy behind closed doors.
In the long term, they might do better. Lost crops and stocks will lead to massive food price inflation and that will lead to grumpier voters at the polls. But in the short term, National has good reason to be worried.
Hipkins is resurrecting Labour’s chances. He’s already likeable, capable and politically astute. Now New Zealand voters will get to know him. Because they’ll see a lot of him.
For the next few weeks, if not months, if he can keep doing the job like he’s done it forever, Hipkins could be a tough Chris to beat.
