Heather du Plessis-Allan: 'Tis the season to be fired

John Key, cleaning out his office, has put a cat among the political pigeons. Photo / Marty Melville

A friend who works in employment law reckons Kiwis go a bit mad a few weeks before Christmas. Some bosses can't bear the thought of returning in 2017 to find John in Accounts still there. So John gets fired.

This December, like clockwork, my friend's phone is going off the hook.

Politicians aren't spared this peculiar New Zealand biorhythm. In fact, this year's worst than most because of the resignation bomb dropped by John Key and the double whammy of a looming election.

So here are the winners and losers of the political equivalent of firing John in Accounts.

DEAD WOOD
Pressed against a wall outside the Beehive this week, Craig Foss stood hunched over his phone. As soon as the phone call finished - red faced - he took himself back into the building, and presumably, his office. The next day he announced his plans to quit politics.

He said it was his idea. Sam Lotu-IIga said the same the day before. Foreign Minister Murray McCully said the same a day later.

Truth is, it was probably Bill English's idea.

Tough as the process is, the new prime minister is mostly doing a pretty good job of cutting the dead wood from Cabinet to give the impression his government is something fresher than it really is.

NICK SMITH
But one face survives. Nick Smith is the prime candidate for a dose of what's being meted out to John in Accounts.

Sure, the housing minister's got an impossible task: he needs to make houses affordable for people trying to buy, but not bring down the value of the houses that people own.

The best he can do is slow the inexorable price increases, but he can't. Every month a new international report rates New Zealand as having either the most unaffordable houses in the world, or the biggest differential between house prices and income, or the country most likely to get so tired of talking about houses that we bulldoze the lot.

The problem for Bill English is that the housing minister is his best friend in the whole world.

ANDREW LITTLE
At just before midnight on Wednesday the lights went on at the Press Gallery's annual booze up in Parliament.

Andrew Little was still there. In fact, a lot of Labour MPs were still there. They didn't necessarily look like they were having fun. It's more like they were eking out every last minute of chat time with drunk journalists and commentators who might be able to say something nice about Labour at some point.

Earlier that evening a Labour MP was taking soundings on whether Little could win the next election. That's not a good sign for the Labour leader. It'll probably come to nothing this side of the election - given the convoluted new process for picking a Labour leader - but unless the party wins, Little might be John from Accounts next year.

JACINDA ARDERN
Jacinda Ardern's that colleague the bosses really like. They promote her because she's really nice.

After slogging it out against National's Nikki Kaye in Auckland Central a couple of times and losing, she's now going to likely win the Mt Albert by-election when David Shearer quits politics for a more friendly environment: South Sudan.

It's good for Ardern - the woman needs a break - and it's good for the party because a high profile candidate winning a second by-election in just a few months gives the impression of a party getting its act together. And, as far as it has to go to even look like a major party again, Labour is slowly getting its act together.

WINSTON PETERS
If a restructure is on the cards after next year's election, then Winston Peters is the HR guy managing the change. Chances are - if he's the kingmaker everyone expects him to be - he'll be the one picking whether it's Labour or National running the country.

He might even get a chance at running the country himself.

He won't admit it, but Peters is said to want a go at the prime ministership. I'm told he wouldn't even demand half the parliamentary term. He'd settle for a year.

It's not as mad as it sounds. It happened in Israel after their elections in 1984, when the leaders of the two coalition parties each had half the term being PM.

The question is which party is desperate enough to give it to Winston?

It's not hard to settle on Labour. Three terms in opposition is a long time. It's said Peters prefers Labour anyway because everyone in National from the backbenchers to Key has been smart to him.

But it would probably be a short-lived marriage since the threesome of Labour, Winston and the Greens looks sure to explode in fits of jealousy and frustration.

THE PUBLIC
Those of us who enjoy watching are in for a treat because 2017 is shaping up to be a cracker of a political year, whatever happens.

And, it turns out John from Accounts didn't need to be fired. He resigned.