Heather du Plessis-Allan: National needs a coalition partner

Don't underestimate a fully Christian party. Photo / 123RF

Don't write National out of the next election yet. There's still a trick that could make all the difference.

Jesus.

Both Jesus and National need the same thing. A new political party. Jesus needs a party his followers can vote for. National needs a party to form coalition with.

Getting that party up and running in less than 18 months? That's miracle stuff.

Before we get into that, let's accept that National will lose badly next year if nothing changes.

National can talk up its shiny 40+ vote all it likes. As impressive as it is, it's still way behind Labour plus the Greens plus NZ First. It's nearly 20 points behind.

National can't make that gap up alone. It needs to phone a friend.

Right now, the only friends it has are two duds. ACT and Vernon Tava's new blue-green party.

ACT needs to be euthanised. It's so brand-damaged it's hurting the colour yellow.

Vernon Tava's blue-green party is a great idea but it is nothing more than political pocket money. It's probably only worth a couple of per cent given it's directly competing with the actual Green Party.

At two-odd per cent, this party actually hurts National. It steals a few Nats voters but doesn't even make it into Parliament. Unless the Nats admit they helped set up the party and throw Tava a safe seat.

Two dud mates. What National needs is a BFF that can form coalition and pull the magic trick of stealing votes from Labour.

This is where Jesus comes in.

Quite a few Christians vote for Labour. Many of them are blue-collar Māori and Pasifika voters. I'd hazard a guess many of them feel a little conflicted at the moment.

Labour might be the traditional home of blue-collar workers, but it's also the party pushing abortion law reform, supporting marijuana law reform, embracing diversity of religion, and led by an unmarried mother who occasionally wears a hijab - thought she may be married by the time of the election rolls around after confirming on Friday her engagement to Clarke Gayford.

Some of her party's stands won't sit comfortably with all Christian voters.

Don't underestimate a fully Christian party. It's a magnet to the Christian vote. Colin Craig's Conservatives got within a hair's breadth of Parliament with 4.6 per cent of the vote in 2014. Grubby old Graham Capill's Christian Coalition almost slid in with 4.4 per cent of the vote in 1996.

So, take a Christian party, give it a charismatic Māori or Pasifika leader, and you've got catnip for conservative Labour voters with itchy feet. Added bonus: it might even seduce a few conservative NZ First voters and bump that party below 5 per cent and thus out of Parliament.

Now that nearly 20 per cent gap seems far smaller doesn't it?

Tick tock though.

The problem for National is time. Less than 18 months isn't long enough to start a party from scratch. It will need to engineer this, just like it engineered Tava's party.

The easiest way is for National to let one of its more media-savvy Christian MPs splinter off and start a new party. For a while there the rumour was that Tamaki MP Simon Connor would be sent on his merry way, Bible in hand, with a safe seat to keep him in Parliament. But he cooked his goose a couple of years ago with a silly tweet. Still, the point is, National is clearly up for the idea.

And right now, National has the means and the need. It has at least two safe seats to use - David Seymour's Epsom and Jami-Lee Ross' Botany. It has a few Māori and Pasifika MPs with a Christian bent. And it also has a constantly decreasing chance at the next election.