Like bruises after a beating, Labour is going to feel the effects of this week for a while. Possibly even at next year's election.
Most obviously, that's because of the brand damage the Prime Minister has suffered. It's impossible to believe that she only learned the sex crime allegationsdetails this week. She looks untrustworthy. That's got to hurt. She is the Labour Party's election strategy. Ardern is their MVP.
But this week also leaves backroom ramifications and threads for the Opposition to pull.
First, the loss of the party president. Nigel Haworth may not have been a household name, but he was powerful and vital. Most party leaders are vital. But few are as powerful as the Labour Party president. Haworth was never answerable to Ardern. He couldn't be fired by her. He couldn't be disciplined by her. Essentially, the party just lost its second-most powerful member.
Haworth was in charge of fundraising and, ultimately, had the final say on candidate selection. A party can't run an election without money. And it can't take the risk of badly chosen candidates embarrassing the party with distracting headlines.
What's more, Haworth has been in the role for four-and-a-half years. That's a lot of institutional knowledge to lose a year out from the vote.
Then there's the loss of the accused. It's obvious he held a reasonably important job in Labour. You don't end up in the Prime Minister's Office because you're good at newspaper crosswords. He's described as being something of a guru in his particular field and, again, takes with him a fair bit of institutional knowledge. So read between the lines here. He's hard to replace. Again, quite a loss a year out from an election.
There's also the potential loss of Labour members. Already, paid-up Labour supporters are so angry they're castigating their party in public. Privately, some have considered cutting ties with the party. That could simply be an immediate, angry reaction, and doesn't necessarily mean they'll follow through. But it does pose the question: do these members now believe in the party enough to turn out as crucial volunteers at the next election in the way they did for Jacindamania?
Jacinda Ardern featured on the cover of an edition of British Vogue edited by Meghan Markle.
And then there are the weapons this hands the National Party: negative narratives. And these narratives hone right in on the MVP: the Prime Minister.
The most damaging is that the PM is shallow. She's all talk, no action. Ardern's pitched herself as a champion of the disadvantaged: women, Māori, the homeless, children in poverty, first-home buyers struggling to get into a house. "Me too", she told the UN, must become "we too". But when Me Too came to her party and she could only muster enough concern to ask colleagues if it was true.
This flub alone would hurt, without adding it to an existing list of left-voter disappointments: not going to Ihumātao, not pushing through the so-called inequality-fixing capital gains tax, not building 100,000 houses. That's now a problem narrative.
And then there's the celebrity PM tag. This one is lurking around the corner. It's already a National Party favourite, thanks to Vogue covers, prioritising interviews with international media, and high-powered global hui over international efforts like the Christchurch Call. This narrative might get fresh wind this week. In the worst case of bad timing, Ardern is off to the UN on Thursday. It's a terrible look to have Labour in disarray back home while the PM jets off to international adulation.
The last thing Ardern needs now is a fawning interview from an international media outlet, praising her progressive credentials.
I'd be surprised if Labour is not already worried about how much this week will hurt in a year.
