The party’s now solidly behind National in the nationwide polls. Five points at the last count. Jacinda Ardern’s becoming more unpopular. Her rating of 29 per cent in the TVNZ poll is bad. John Key was on 36 per cent when he quit. Helen Clark was on 36 per cent when she lost.
This all seems to have dawned on Labour this week. Suddenly the party’s promising to change everything.
The PM’s ordered ministers to consider cutting pet projects. She’s announced the economy will be the priority (as if to confirm fears that it hasn’t been up to now). She’s hinted the pointless and controversial RNZ-TVNZ merger might be for the chop. She’s started refreshing her line-up with a handful of retirements. Grant Robertson’s aiming for a conservative Budget.
Labour’s remarkably late in realising how grumpy voters were getting. The polls have been slipping consistently virtually all year. Kiwis didn’t support the party’s pet projects. Only 29 per cent of voters supported Three Waters. Only 22 per cent support the RNZ-TVNZ merger.
For at least a year now, Labour’s behaved like a bad boyfriend, neglecting voters and just doing as it pleases.
Labour forced things on voters that they hadn’t campaigned on (co-governance). They ignored pleas to give voters what they needed (more migrant workers). And instead, they stubbornly ploughed on with their own ideas of how things should work (keeping nurses off the highest-priority immigration list for seven months).
They’ve alienated farmers with plans to tax them for the climate. They’ve alienated businesses with plans to levy them for unemployment insurance. They’ve alienated landlords and homeowners by changing tax rules. They’ve alienated retail owners by reacting too slowly to the major retail crime issue in our main centres.
A year out from the election is very late to realise we’re not listening anymore. Labour’s basically woken up at the point where we’re moving our clothing out of the house ahead of the breakup.
The question is whether Labour can rescue this. It is always possible that voters might forgive and forget. Once the RNZ-TVNZ merger is nuked it’ll stop being a problem. Now that Three Waters is passed, we’ll mostly stop talking about it. Voters fall more easily for a dirty old election bribe than they care to admit.
But so much damage has been banked up. So much trust has been eroded. Labour can tell voters till they’re blue in the face that they’ll be kind, manage the economy and deliver on promises, but voters have seen too much to easily believe that.
Even if Labour wipes away all that resentment and distrust and pulls off the most amazing comeback, it’s still fighting forces beyond its own control now too.
This is not 2020′s Judith Collins-led Opposition. Chris Luxon seems to have found his confidence in the last few weeks. David Seymour’s nailed the art of getting under the PM’s skin. Next year, Opposition policies will start rolling out too.
We’re also no longer in the increasing-house-prices, Covid-free bliss of 2020. Next year looks likely to be a grumpy 12 months of recession, falling house prices, rising grocery bills and yet another winter with a crumbling health system.
Labour winning next year is a very long shot indeed.
Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive, Newstalk ZB, 4pm-7pm, weekdays.
