But either way, that's a loss for the very strong and very pushy Māori caucus, so regardless of the real reason, that would've created quite the balancing act for Ardern who would likely have had to compensate them.
Which may bring us to Nanaia Mahuta as Foreign Minister. That's a surprise. Not a good surprise. For an MP who's been in Parliament since 1996, she's managed to achieve remarkably little.
She does seem to have found something akin to a work ethic in the last term given the work she's done on the three waters reform, so at least we can say she can do some work if she wants to.
Still, a very clever appointment. Because Ardern has managed to get another member of the Māori caucus into Cabinet and can say she appointed New Zealand's first-ever woman Foreign Minister, but she's cunningly done it at a time when the borders are closed so the Foreign Minister won't be going anywhere for a while.
Pulling together this Cabinet wouldn't have been easy, given that Ardern still has a lack of depth in her team. That's obvious from the fact that she's had to include Willie Jackson.
That guy's a liability, the way he gets himself into trouble with his mouth. Any Cabinet that includes him is a Cabinet running out of warm bodies.
But credit to Ardern: She's managed to put smart people into key roles – like Andrew Little into Health; managed to bring in some promising new talent – like Ayesha Verrall, who's now an Associate Minister of Health, and Michael Wood, who'll take over Transport – and yet balance all the competing forces.
And more importantly, she's shown she does have the backbone to make tough calls.
