Heather du Plessis-Allan: If coronavirus travel ban was a political decision, NZ is paying a high cost

Comment:

How quickly can history repeat? Jacinda Ardern's just done virtually the same thing to New Zealand that Donald Trump did to the US two days earlier.

She's shocked the country by announcing travel restrictions far tighter than anyone could've imagined.

Only Friday - one day earlier - talk was that Cabinet was considering tighter restrictions for travellers from the west coast of the US.

How that shifted to include travellers from almost anywhere in the world only 24 hours later is anyone's guess.

And if you were forced to guess, you might say this smacks of a political decision - one designed to make the PM look strong.

The announcement came only hours after columnists in Saturday newspapers criticised Ardern's flagging decision-making on coronavirus.

She'd dithered on cancelling the Pasifika Festival, dithered on cancelling the March 15 commemoration, dithered on delivering tighter travel restrictions on Friday, despite indicating she would.

What's the best way to counter criticism that the leader isn't strong? Come out far more strongly than anyone expects.

A quick glance at the effects of Trump's shock announcement on Thursday might've urged caution. He sent the markets into a tailspin. That was simply because he took the country by surprise.

Back here, industry insiders were also surprised. Some had no heads-up of the announcement.

The repercussions of this decision are that international tourism to New Zealand will fall away almost completely.

It's hard to imagine anyone going ahead with a month-long trip here when half their holiday will be spent in self isolation.

It's possible the only travellers headed our way will be those moving here for good and those like backpackers, planning a longer, low-spending stay.

The economic cost of this will be enormous. There are estimates we're forfeiting as much as $700 million in tourism spending in the next fortnight or so. That will ripple through the economy. Commentators now say a recession is inevitable.

Cabinet's taken this drastic measure despite an acknowledgement that we will not be able to keep the virus out altogether. It must be one of the worst possible scenarios that we delay the height of the thing to our winter when hospitals are already grappling with a spike in the flu.

Whatever Finance Minister Grant Robertson was planning to spend in economic assistance mid-week, it must have just have shot up in price. The cost of helping businesses to survive these travel restrictions is hard to quantify, but it will be huge.

Let's hope the advice behind this decision was sound. Because if it wasn't, and the decision is largely a political one designed to make the PM look like a strong leader, then the country is paying a huge price for that.