Heat on National's education pledge

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Education was one of the National Party's main campaign planks in 2008 - but it will struggle in this Budget to keep its promise to increase education spending every year above and beyond what was already committed.

Prime Minister John Key and Finance Minister Bill English have said health, education and justice will be the only areas to get funding increases in what is otherwise expected to be a flatline Budget.

However, critics will be watching closely to ensure the education boost is more than the unavoidable cost increases - such as teacher salary rises and rising inflation affecting schools' operating costs.

Without any further policy changes, education spending is already forecast to rise by more than $200 million this year.

One of the main uncertainties is the impact of the Christchurch earthquake and how much of the cost of rebuilding schools and other costs will have to be absorbed within the education allocation.

Schools are yet to receive any assurance from Education Minister Anne Tolley about whether their operational funding increases will remain intact and whether the quake costs will be covered from the education budget or out of a separate appropriation for Christchurch.

If education has to bear a major portion of that cost, there is concern that it could come at the cost of other schools outside Christchurch. Schools were given a 4 per cent increase in operational funding last year - an extra $156 million over four years.

Some are now concerned that could be in jeopardy as money is siphoned away to help pay for Christchurch.

There is also concern that in rebuilding Christchurch schools, the Government could tap into the $500 million it allocated in 2009 to build new schools and classrooms to cater for population growth in areas such as Auckland.

Labour education spokeswoman Sue Moroney said she would be watching closely to see whether the increase was enough to at least meet inflation and the costs of catering for an increasing school population - and where further cuts were made.

"Yes, the figure will be higher than the last Budget but is it high enough to stop programmes being cut? And is it as high as it needs to be just simply for schools to keep their heads above water because of the impacts of inflation and population growth?

"If the funding increase doesn't do that, then it is effectively a funding cut."

Ms Moroney said that in early childhood education, the spending of $1.3 billion was still $300 million short of where it should be to meet those two demands. She suspected some of the announced increase would also simply be a re-announcement of funding already in the pipeline having been promised under previous multi-year appropriations, rather than new spending.

In previous years National has had to backtrack or water down some of its intentions because of the downturn and spiralling costs in education.

Spending on early childhood education has increased from $800 million to $1.2 billion since 2008, but some of National's most controversial cuts have also been in that sector.

On the spending side of the ledger, it has extended the 20 Hours Free subsidy scheme to include kohanga reo and playcentres and set up a $92 million fund to increase attendance at childcare centres by vulnerable children, such as Maori and Pacific Islanders. It has also increased operations funding for centres.

However, despite its promise to keep all subsidies in place, last year it moved to strip some subsidies for childcare centres with more than 80 per cent fully registered teachers - a step sector groups say has pushed up fees for parents.

In the same 2010 Budget it also deferred its policy to remove the six-hour daily limit for children under the 20 Hours Free subsidies - another election promise.

In finding savings to help pay for its initiatives, the Government also cut into professional development spending for teachers. The total spend on that has dropped from $108 million in 2008 to about $99 million last year.

But National has invested fairly heavily in its new policies, including school buildings and the Youth Guarantee scheme - one of its key policies to get young people into work.

The scheme, giving 16- and 17-year-olds free vocational training at places such as polytechnics, is oversubscribed for the annual 2500 places that have been funded and Mrs Tolley is planning to extend the scope of the scheme to involve industry groups next year.

She has given few hints as to where the new spending will be directed in education this year. In recent speeches she has warned that while education's budget is still expected to increase, difficult decisions need to be made because of the earthquake.

Mrs Tolley has also signalled that the focus will be on existing rather than new programmes.

Potential areas for boosts are those programmes National devised to help keep youth in education and get them into jobs - such as the Youth Guarantee and its associated "Trade Academies" - as well as smaller-scale programmes which the party has taken a hard line on, such as anti-bullying, truancy and disruptive student behaviour.