Hawke’s Bay’s autumn weather forecast: Mostly dry, with solid burst of rain likely later in March

Niwa says the third week of March could be one to watch in Hawke's Bay, but otherwise, expect a dry start to autumn and good Pandora Pond fishing conditions. Photo / Warren Buckland

A wet week in late March “is one to put on the calendar” in an otherwise fine start to autumn for Hawke’s Bay.

How much actual rainfall there’ll be is unclear, but it should be enough to ensure the region doesn’t come under severe threat of late-season drought or wildfires, says National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) meteorologist Ben Noll.

The El Nino weather system forecast for Hawke’s Bay this summer hasn’t been as severe as anticipated, says Noll, which means soil moisture levels aren’t as low as they could have been.

“Rainfall has been below normal, if not well below normal, for the month of February in Hawke’s Bay, so generally less than 50 per cent of the monthly normal rainfall fell,” Noll said.

That’s reflected in soil moisture deficits “of anywhere between 10 to 30 millimetres”.

Noll says it would need three to four consecutive months of low rainfall before that became an issue, and Niwa’s forecasting suggests that won’t eventuate.

“So a couple of things to watch for March overall,” said Noll.

“It does look like we’ll be having some rain coming in, so maybe look to the first week of the month, as well as the third week of the month.

“The third week of March is one I would put on the calendar as one to watch for maybe a little bit more moisture in the region.

“Given that it’s quite far out and still three weeks away, we can’t really offer too much in the way of detail, but I would say it’s a week to tuck away in the back of our heads, to be a little bit more aware of in terms of weather.

“It could be in the form of rain, and maybe heavily for some regions. Exactly where and exactly how much [is] uncertain, given that it’s so far out.

“But it is a week to watch, I would say.”

Overall, Noll predicts Hawke’s Bay will move into April “in a drier direction” thanks to westerly winds.

“On balance, I think you’ll end up with near-normal rainfall for the whole autumn, but you may find that your rainfall happens irregularly. Sometimes you might get heavy rainfall, and then that might be followed up by a few weeks of relatively dry conditions,” Noll said.

Hamish Bidwell joined Hawke’s Bay Today in 2022 and works out of the Hastings newsroom.