Hawke’s Bay weather: Weekend heavy rain watch could reach warning levels

A horse and jockey on the track at the Hawke's Bay Racing Centre in Hastings on Wednesday as wet weather looms. Photo / Warren Buckland

Hawke’s Bay’s fleeting glimpses of sunshine this week will be but a distant memory over the weekend, with the region again set to be lashed by heavy rain.

On Wednesday morning, MetService issued a heavy rain watch from Friday until Sunday between Hawke’s Bay north of Napier and Tairāwhiti/Gisborne from Tokomaru Bay southwards, signalling it could easily be upgraded to a warning on Thursday.

“We’ve issued a watch at this stage”, said MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane.

“It is a bit far out, but the watch is an early heads-up that is something on the way, and if it is warranted, we will upgrade it to a warning.”

Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Group controller Ian Macdonald said they were “very aware” of community concerns over the watch and were keeping up to date with the latest forecasts.

“We maintain a 24/7 duty system and work closely with HBRC [Hawke’s Bay Regional Council], who are monitoring river levels,” he said.

“Once we have more definite information, we will work with the councils, emergency services and other government agencies to respond appropriately. This may include council asset management staff actively monitoring and staff being on standby to respond.”

It’s the second weekend in a row to see a spell of bad weather in Hawke’s Bay.

Last weekend, a warning was put in place for the Ruahine Range, with Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Group saying rainfall would likely be around one-in-five-year levels, and that its broad extent could cause a “small to moderate” rise in river levels.

“A concern will be erosion of riverbanks and bridge abutments from a constant minor flow for many hours,” the post read.

This weekend’s bad weather will be the result of both a large front and a low-pressure system that will move up the country from the middle of Thursday, Makgabutlane said.

“The front is going to be bringing in the wet weather and rain. Then into the weekend, we’ll see a low-pressure system form up the top of the East Cape, which [will] drive in quite a lot of moisture from the east and northeast.”

She said this kind of lingering weather could be “very similar” to what people experienced last weekend. It will also be accompanied by a temperature drop as much of the country prepares to face a polar blast.

“We also anticipate a temperature change for the country. For Hawke’s Bay, we’ll have some average mild days this week, but come the weekend, they are expected to hover in the mid-teens. So there’s quite a sharp temperature drop on the way.”

While it was too early to forecast exact rainfall numbers, Makgabutlane said a warning level usually signals more than 100 millimetres of rainfall within a 24-hour period.

“A watch indicates the amounts could reach the warning criteria.”

Advice for the region is the same as last week: people should keep up to date with the latest forecasts, as well as posts on the Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Group’s social media pages.

Mitchell Hageman joined Hawke’s Bay Today in late January. From his Napier base, he writes regularly on social issues, arts and culture, and the community.