NZ Herald Political Editor Thomas Coughlan discusses the latest poll released by RNZ, which shows National falling further. Video / Ryan Bridge TODAY
National has slipped further behind Labour in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, falling to 30.8% support.
While it is a better result than the 28.4% it recorded in the most recent Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll, it still makes grim reading for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who has recorded his lowestpersonal approval rating yet.
If replicated on polling day, the numbers would leave the country in limbo, producing 60 seats each for the coalition and opposition blocs.
RNZ poll results
The poll, published Monday, puts Labour in the top spot on 35.6%, up 0.6 points from January, while National is down 1.1 points to 30.8%.
New Zealand First continues its upward trajectory, climbing 0.8 points to 10.6%, its highest score since July 2017.
The Greens are on 10.1% (up 0.5 points), Act is on 7% (down 0.6 points) and Te Pāti Māori sits at 3.2% (up 0.2 points).
The RNZ-Reid Research poll has Parliament looking like this.
The poll surveyed 1000 eligible voters online between March 12-20. Half of the respondents, however, were surveyed before March 14, meaning the result won’t fully reflect the public response to the dispute between Labour leader Chris Hipkins and his ex-wife.
Undecided or non-voters made up 7.1% of those polled.
If the results were repeated at a general election, National would win 38 seats, NZ First 13 and Act nine. On the left, Labour would bring in 44 MPs, the Greens 12 and Te Pāti Māori four.
That would make a 60-60 deadlock in a 120-seat Parliament, likely sparking negotiations across the aisle to try to secure a majority and prevent an election re-run.
The party vote is reflected in the preferred prime minister measure, with Hipkins leading on 20.7%, down 0.4 points.
Luxon has dropped 2.1 points to 17.3%, while NZ First leader Winston Peters sits at 13.1%, up 0.5 points.
More than 19% of voters declined to name a preferred prime minister.
Half of respondents – 50.4% – say Luxon is performing poorly as prime minister, compared with 29.8% who rate him well.
That gives Luxon a net score of -20.6 (down 6.6 points), his weakest result in the Reid Research series since becoming National leader in 2021. (Note: Reid Research did not run any public polls between November 2023 and March 2025.)
Former National leaders, however, received worse scores while in opposition: Judith Collins recorded a net rating as low as -37.9 in mid-2020 and Simon Bridges dropped to -39 in mid-2019.
Hipkins’ net performance score remains stronger, though it too is trending down.
With 35.9% rating him well and 35.6% poorly, his net rating has slipped to just 0.3 (down 0.6 points), also his lowest as Labour leader.
The poll also shows worsening public sentiment, with 50% (up 3.4 points) of respondents saying New Zealand is heading in the wrong direction, compared with 32.3% (down 4 points) who think it is on the right track.
That gives a net score of -17.7, down 7.4 points from January.
About 16% of voters are undecided, while another 2% say they do not know.
National supporters are the most optimistic, with a net score of +63.1, followed by Act supporters on +24.1.
NZ First voters are much more pessimistic, recording a net score of -24.6.
This poll of 1000 people was conducted by Reid Research, using quota sampling and weighting to ensure representative cross-section by age, gender and geography. The poll was conducted through online interviews between 12-20 March 2026 and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence level.
