Greens, NZ First keep winning voters

By VERNON SMALL, deputy political editor

Backing for the Greens and New Zealand First has continued to surge, dampening Labour's hopes of governing alone.

A Herald-DigiPoll survey taken during the height of the so-called "corngate" fracas shows Labour's popularity wilting slightly as its likely allies rise.

But there was no consolation for National, which hit a new low in the five-year history of the poll.

The survey put Labour at 46.7 per cent, down 1.3 percentage points from a fortnight earlier. National slid 1.4 to 23.1 per cent as the centre-right registered less than half the support of the centre-left parties.

If the poll support was replicated at the July 27 general election Labour would win 58 seats - tantalisingly short of a majority in the 120-seat Parliament, even with Jim Anderton's support.

National would have 28 MPs, 11 fewer than now, and record one of the worst performances in its history.

Assuming he retains his Ohariu-Belmont seat United Future leader Peter Dunne could hold the crucial 61st seat and the balance of power if Helen Clark decided to spurn the Greens and NZ First.

The biggest winner in the latest poll was NZ First, up 1.9 at 8.3 per cent after several assured performances by leader Winston Peters in televised debates.

His three-pronged campaign on crime, immigration and the Treaty of Waitangi is clearly making headway, although only crime ranks highly with voters.

Asked what was the most important issue for the election, respondents listed health (19.6 per cent) followed by crime (16 per cent), education (14.1 per cent), genetic modification (10.9 per cent) and the teachers' strike (9.3 per cent).

The economy was rated the top issue by only 5.8 per cent, but still well ahead of immigration (2.2 per cent).

The poll of 912 people was taken between July 10 and 15, during the height of the corngate saga, Helen Clark's angry reaction in an interview with TV3's John Campbell, and news the Serious Fraud Office had cleared National of any wrongdoing over party funding. It has a margin of error of 3.2 per cent.

Helen Clark's attack on the Greens appeared only to boost their support, up 1.2 points to 11.3 per cent - enough for 14 seats in the House.

The Act party won 5.5 per cent, down from 5.8 per cent two weeks ago.

Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition drew 1.3 per cent - just enough to ensure Corrections Minister Matt Robson would join Mr Anderton in Parliament. Laila Harre's Alliance could muster just 0.4 per cent and Mr Dunne's United Future polled 1.1 per cent.

During the campaign the minor players have stripped support from the big two. At the outset Labour was polling 49.9 per cent and National 31.2 per cent.

Between them the two main parties have shed 13.3 per cent from a combined 81.1 per cent to 67.8 per cent since the Prime Minister called an early election in June.

NZ First has made the biggest gains, leaping from 2.5 per cent on June 10 to 8.3 per cent now.

During the same period the Greens have risen from 7.7 per cent to 11.3 per cent.

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