KEY POINTS:
GENDER
Today's poll shows very little gender bias in a breakdown of the party vote. The gender breakdown is almost exactly in line with the overall party vote figures, except for New Zealand First.
The party has more pronounced support from women than men but given that
its overall party vote rating is 1.9 per cent, the sample size is too small to be significant.
A gender bias is more evident in the preferred Prime Minister figures. National leader John Key has maintained his disproportionate support among men, with 49.2 per cent compared with 44.5 per cent support overall.
Prime Minister Helen Clark has more pronounced support among women: 47.9 per cent of women want her to be Prime Minister compared with 42.3 per cent support overall.
AGE
Party Vote
The party and preferred Prime Minister support figures have been broken down in to seven age bands: 18 to 24; 25 to 29; 30 to 39; 40 to 49; 50 to 59; 60 to 69; and 70 plus.
National has 51.5 per cent support overall but disproportionately less support among people in their 20s and 30s. Conversely, it has disproportionately more support from respondents in their 40s, 50s and 70s.
Labour has 36.2 per cent support overall and a large deficit among the youngest voter band, at 27.9 per cent, but it has much higher support from people in their 30s - rating 45 per cent in that age group. The Greens have again registered high support among young voters and New Zealand First higher support among the elderly.
The Greens' overall party vote support is 6.4 per cent but they rate 17.6 per cent among the 18- to 24-year-olds. New Zealand First's overall party vote rating is 1.9 per cent, but it is favoured by 4.9 per cent of respondents in their 60s and 4.2 per cent of those in their 70s.
Preferred PM
National leader John Key is disproportionately supported as preferred Prime Minister by the 40 to 60 age group and the over-70s. He has a support deficit among the 18- to 40-year-olds. With 44.6 per cent support overall, only 37.9 per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds prefer him but 50 per cent of over-70-year-olds support him.
Prime Minister Helen Clark, with 42.3 per cent support overall, is subject to smaller variations within the age group bands except that she has disproportionately high support from people in their 30s, at 48.7 per cent.
NZ First leader Winston Peters has 6.7 per cent support with not a lot of variation among the ages except for people in their 60s, of whom 14.5 per cent want him to be Prime Minister.
INCOME
Labour has more support in lower-income households in both total support and disproportionately more support, but the gap between Labour and National in lower-income households is narrower than in the highest income bracket.
Labour has 36.2 per cent support overall, but 45.5 per cent support in households earning less than $30,000. National has 39.1 per cent support in that income group and 51.5 per cent overall. Among voters who earn more than $80,000, 61.9 per cent support National and 27.6 per cent support Labour.
ISSUES The economy has jumped to the number one issue most likely to influence people's votes, cited by 26.7 per cent of respondents. Number two issue is tax cuts, with 22.5 per cent, then hospital waiting lists, on 11.7 per cent, followed by law and order, leadership and global warming.
A further breakdown of the figures shows the economy was the number one issue among respondents before the Budget and after (25.7 per cent v 28.5 per cent).
When the most important issues are lined up with party vote figures, the economy is rated as the top issue among all parties except for the Maori Party. More of its supporters rate tax cuts as the issue most likely to influence their vote.
AUCKLAND v THE REST
National's support is evenly spread in Auckland and the rest of the country, its overall rating of 51.5 only fractionally varying between the biggest city (51.7) and the rest of New Zealand (51.4).
Labour's support across New Zealand is 36.2 per cent and a little higher in Auckland, 38.4 per cent against 35.1 per cent elsewhere.
Both John Key and Helen Clark have equal support outside Auckland for preferred Prime Minister, (43 per cent), but John Key has more pronounced support in Auckland, 47.7 per cent, compared with Helen Clark's 40.8 per cent.
ISSUES Tax cuts are regarded as a more important issue in Auckland than the rest of the country. While the economy rates across the country as the issue most likely to influence voters and tax cuts next, in Auckland the tax cuts remains the number one issue, with 26.4 per cent rating it so, compared with 20.6 per cent in the rest of the country.
