New Zealand has one of the fastest growing labour force participation rates for older workers in the world. From 16 per cent in 2010, the percentage of 65+ remaining in the workforce will increase to 26 per cent by 2030. Despite concern over the costs of social security due an ageing population, many of this cohort will continue to contribute to the economy.
However, as baby-boomers do retire, labour supply will decline. Smaller cohorts will follow, which will result in a drop in the share of the population of the prime working-age and, accordingly, we will experience labour shortages.
Consequently, there is increasing recognition of the value of older workers. Efforts to retain older workers in the workforce to ameliorate the potential loss of critical organisational knowledge and experience will intensify. For example, there will be incentives to encourage workforce participation by older New Zealanders such as maximising work and retirement flexibility, and providing conditions that support lifelong learning irrespective of age.
The 'silver economy' has been identified as a driver of future economic growth. Business will tap into the growing baby boomer market which will be, on average, healthier and wealthier than previous cohorts of older New Zealanders and hence consumer preferences and patterns of consumption are also likely to change.
A consequence of the workforce and demographic changes is that several occupations in New Zealand are ageing, a trend that is expected to continue as the baby boomers age. These so-called 'greying' occupations include health, transport and education. These sectors will need to adapt to maximise the potential of their ageing workforce and attract new workers.
Ageism
Ageism towards old people will need to change. At present, we still have a social problem in which all older people are seen as one group and this impacts on their treatment in the workplace, in health care settings, and other areas of life. Generally they are viewed as incompetent, disabled, and unpleasant. As the baby boomers head into their 60s and 70s and older people remain working in positions of power, are visibly successful, and have a stronger voice in society, these attitudes will shift.
Sexuality is one way in which understandings of older people's lives are changing. The sexual activity of older people will continue to grow in visibility, and different sexual orientations will become apparent as growing numbers of older people are able to declare their preferences.
Although advertisers are very slow to pick up on the changing ageing ratios, politicians are already keenly aware of the growing older vote, hence John Key's reluctance to raise the retirement age.
Housing
There will also be shifts in the ways that we live. In addition to seaside spots and gated retirement villages, there are changes happening in Europe and the United States that suggest a wider variety of options for older people's housing.
One of these developments is shared spaces, not 'flatting', but systems of attractive communal housing that are becoming increasingly popular. There are different models or arrangements in which individuals have private apartments with shared communal facilities and systems of shared meals or attached restaurants and bars.
An important feature of these housing arrangements is that they are part of the wider community, rather than being separated and gated. Because loneliness is a major problem among the aged population now, these arrangements should be supported by public policy.
A feature of some purpose-built communal housing is that supportive arrangements can be made to stay at home for the rest of one's life. Although people have widely different preferences for their living arrangements as they age, nobody wants to end up in a nursing home for dementia patients. Sadly, that is the main option at present, but with revolutionary Dutch models of care leading the way, the hospital-style version of nursing home care should become a thing of the past.
Health services
With a growing focus on prevention of disease and community care for those with disabilities, health care costs should diminish. There will be a greater use of technology by older people. This will include:
More sophisticated mobility aids, which will allow independence for those whose eyesight, hearing and movement are compromised.
Smart houses will include management of climate and heating for very elderly people, monitoring of movements for those at risk, robots for cleaning and dispensing care, and instant communications when help is needed.
Telehealth, or the delivery of health-related services and information via the phone or internet. Telehealth for elder care is already in wide use in Australia and being trialled in New Zealand. It is predicted to become a major way in which health care is delivered as it improves clinical responses and health outcomes and reduces isolation.
Inequalities
Unequal living standards is one important difference between groups of older people that will become more apparent as the population ages. The national superannuation presently supports reasonable standards of living for most people. In the future this level of basic support will be strained, those who pay rent and have no savings will be seriously disadvantaged, and we are likely to see new groups of older people in hardship.
Professor Christine Stephens and Associate Professor Fiona Alpass are from Massey University's School of Psychology.
