Demography
Auckland's population is growing much faster than other cities in New Zealand. This future, young and diverse population will be more likely than previous generations to use public transport and non-motorised transport if it is provided. On the hand, baby boomers - who love cars - are an ageing but powerful group with fears of social isolation. As they give up their drivers' licences, they will need physically, socially and economically suitable transport, including shared cars, public transport access, pleasant walking and safe cycling paths.
Higher density living
The typical Auckland lifestyle is changing. In the future, more Aucklanders will live in apartments and townhouses closer to the CBD, rather than in suburban homes on quarter-acre sections. These people will make larger numbers of short trips to go to work, social engagements and leisure activities; they will need timely travel information and a quality travelling experience. Technology, including electronic ticketing and wi-fi in buses, trains and public spaces, could make a positive difference to improving travel safety, security and connectivity.
The increasing cost of cars
Car ownership will become more expensive due to high petrol prices, congestion charges and parking charge increases, and Auckland traffic congestion means trips will continue to get slower. This will push people out of cars, especially if good quality trains and buses on dedicated lanes provide a viable alternative.
These emerging factors provide an opportunity to create a transport system for Auckland that is people-centred, equitable and sustainable. The city's politicians have adopted the vision of a liveable city, and now need to set bold targets for achieving walking, cycling and public transport patronage. Innovative funding options are also needed, along with plans for development alongside bus corridors and train stations.
Meaningful community involvement will lead to more well-balanced and workable solutions. The everyday experiences of Auckland communities provide 'windows of opportunity' to simplify bus routes and integrate a wider public transport network at relatively little cost, as has happened in Vancouver and Perth.
But most importantly, a change in mindset is needed. Unlimited spending on motorways is simply not an option in a resource-scarce world battling climate change. Aucklanders need to end their love affair with the car and politicians need to look beyond building new roads if the city is to create the easy mobility of a truly liveable 21st century city.
Dr Imran Muhammad is a senior lecturer in Massey University's School of People Environment and Planning.