Future government hangs in the balance

Labour leader Helen Clark in the box seat for a historic third term as Prime Minister. Getty Images / Phil Walter

Helen Clark will seek today to put together the frailest and most unwieldy governing arrangement in living memory.

Over two hours of vote-counting last night, she seized pole position for prime minister from National leader Don Brash - 50 seats to his 49 on provisional results.

But such a fragile arrangement could be a poisoned chalice.

At 65, Dr Brash is waiting in the wings, insisting that it will all fall apart within a year.

Last night he refused to concede defeat. "It is too close to call, and it will depend on the outcome of the 218,000-odd special votes, and we will have to see the outcome of that," he told the Herald on Sunday from his Tamaki home.

Later Dr Brash told supporters: "There's a small matter of building a coalition government, and it's not at all clear who will be able to do that."

Already some Labour MPs have scheduled factional meetings and teleconferences for today as they prepare to battle with coalition partners for Cabinet seats.

United Future leader Peter Dunne said he and Winston Peters were the "king-makers".

He has promised to talk first to the party with the most seats, and Mr Peters has promised not to oppose it, putting Clark in the box seat for a historic third term as Prime Minister.

However, it comes at a cost. Ministers Jim Sutton, Rick Barker, Dover Samuels and Mita Ririnui all lost their seats, though they will return to Parliament on the list. One-time wunderkind John Tamihere was knocked out of Parliament entirely.

In key results:

New Act leader Rodney Hide upset National's Richard Worth in the country's most blue-ribbon seat, Epsom, returning two Act MPs to Parliament.

Winston Peters, once "just happy to be the MP for Tauranga", lost his 21-year stronghold to National in a dirty battle, but held on to the balance of power.

The Maori Party arrived as a new force in Parliament with a warning that it would rather go back to the polls than compromise.

Clark will today pick up the phone to talk to her existing coalition partner Jim Anderton, set to be the sole Progressive MP, and to the Greens and United Future.

Early this morning, to chants from supporters of "three more years", she said her objective was to begin negotiations to lead a government bringing New Zealanders together.

"I have been concerned at the divisions that the election campaign has opened up amongst our peoples and I believe it's our historic duty to bring people together," she said.

"And with that stability we want to continue the incredible economic progress our country has made under a Labour Government, and we will also continue to see that rising tide lift every boat across our community."

Greens co-leaders Jeanette Fitzsimons and Rod Donald will expect Cabinet portfolios, most likely local government, environment and associate finance. United Future leader Peter Dunne, back with less than half his previous complement of MPs, may demand to be foreign affairs minister - but insists he will not sit around a Cabinet table with the Greens.

Even with the support of Anderton (1), the Greens (6) and United Future (3), Clark can only patch together 60 seats in a 122-seat overhung Parliament. She will still need either the Maori Party or NZ First to support her on supply and confidence votes, or at least agree to abstain.

Maori Party president Whatarangi Winiata said his party would not do deals on the Treaty and the foreshore and seabed: he would rather return the country to the polls in coming months than compromise the party's principles.

"It may be better to go back to the electorate and have another vote," he said. "People may say it's holding the nation to ransom. That doesn't concern me. The nation gave away the foreshore and seabed."

His stance was echoed by new MP Te Ururoa Flavell and co-leader Pita Sharples, who said that Maori had done enough compromising: it was time for Pakeha to learn to do the same.

The Maori Party plans to hold 21 hui around the country to consult its members, before it agrees to support any governing arrangement.

Sharples said Pakeha would just have to wait: "It's not just Maori time, it's Maori custom. Perhaps they might try it themselves - consulting with the people.

"Obviously Labour's got more in common with us than National at this stage: there's some bottom lines that we won't give up like the seats and the Treaty," he said.

"But we grieve as a party over what Labour did to us over the foreshore and seabed, so if there is to be a relationship we have top make sure we are not buried like Labour's Maori MPs."

Winston Peters said last night NZ First would provide, from the cross-benches, stability for the next Government on supply and confidence.

"When we campaigned we said that we would put our support in the interests of stable Government behind the party that got the most seats. Now that being the case tonight it's all square."

United Future leader Peter Dunne last night repeated his stance that his party would refuse to sit around a Cabinet table with a Labour Government if the Greens were there too.

He said there were various alternative options if Labour had the most seats, such as the Greens staying outside the Government but supporting it on confidence and supply.

Greens co-leader Rod Donald responded tersely: "I'm sorry he feels that way. But it's actually up to Helen Clark to make those sorts of decisions."

Peter Dunne reiterated United Future's commitment to talk first to the party that won the largest number of seats.

"We will see if our role is critical to that over the next few days but there is no decision tonight," he said.

"If the three seats are the seats that count then we'll have influence. I've made our position clear," he said.

Surrounded by United Future supporters at Wellington's Backbencher Bar last night he said the election was so far too close to call. He said it could take several weeks for a government to be formed.

"We can't make a judgement until the special votes come in. The numbers are still bouncing around," he said.

He said he had not received a phone call from Don Brash or Helen Clark. He paid tribute to the four or five MPs who were likely to lose their jobs.

"I'm sorry that their hard work has not been rewarded and recognised" he said. Cynics suspected that United Future would be a three-year wonder but "we've come through remarkably intact."

Asked why United Future had not done so well in this election he said it was "an entirely different contest". Labour and National were polling almost 80 per cent between them. "We are squeezed between two major parties and all the smaller parties are taking a major hit but we are here for the long haul."

- HERALD ON SUNDAY