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Education officials have no idea how many 3 and 4-year-olds will be able to access the Government's 20-hours free early education scheme when it starts on July 1.
Education Minister Steve Maharey said last year the Labour election promise would benefit "around 92,000 children in the first year".
But Education Ministry education management policy manager Karl Le Quesne yesterday said it was impossible to say how many children would be able to access the scheme in its first year.
In recent months, Mr Maharey's comments have changed to "up to 92,000 children".
Mr Le Quesne told Parliament's education and science committee that the 92,000 figure used by Mr Maharey was the total number of early childhood enrolments in 2005 but it was unlikely such a high number would be able to access the scheme in July because it was unclear how many centres would "opt in".
"What we're expecting is that this isn't a July 1 policy every potential service will be offering. We think it will come on stream over time."
He said anecdotal evidence suggested a "mixed response" to the policy among providers.
In recent weeks, providers have cited several concerns, mainly around the rate the Government is willing to pay, with many privately-run centres saying the policy will be unworkable.
Private providers say it will not cover their costs and, under the policy, it will be difficult for them to make up the difference through voluntary payments.
Kindergarten teachers have also said it may not meet their costs and the branding of it as a "free" policy will make it difficult for them to get the necessary donations from parents to pay for their existing service.
Mr Le Quesne said the funding was for the cost of the most basic regulated service.
Centres were free to come to an arrangement with parents regarding payment for other add-ons but, if they took up the 20-hours free policy, they could not compel parents with children already enrolled to pay.
They could refuse new enrolments if the children's parents would not sign an agreement to pay the extra costs but, in doing so, could expose themselves to a possible discrimination case being taken to the Human Rights Commission. He pointed out the money was to cover costs, not allow a "profit".
National Party early childhood education spokeswoman Paula Bennett said providers would have no certainty of funding if they were forced to rely on voluntary payments.
"The reality is for many children, even thousands potentially, there is not going to be 20 free hours come July."
A survey this year of 615 providers by the Early Childhood Council - an industry body for mainly private entities - showed only one in five had committed to the policy.
- NZPA
