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Home / New Zealand

Fran O'Sullivan: Fonterra bosses face hard decisions

By Fran O'Sullivan
NZME. regionals·
16 Jul, 2015 12:00 AM4 mins to read

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Theo Spierings has been rubbing shoulders with royalty.

Theo Spierings has been rubbing shoulders with royalty.

Read the headlines and you could be forgiven for thinking the country is being pushed into a major recession through slumping dairy prices.

It is a long way from when New Zealand commanded the reputation as the "Saudi Arabia of milk" and Fonterra chiefs boasted when revealing their financial results of how many billions the dairy export trade was bringing into the NZ economy.

These days the mood is resigned. But farmers are resilient and focused on the medium and longer-term future.

The latest GlobalDairyTrade - which was due to take place overnight - was again predicted to fall on the back of futures market trading.

The long slump in dairy prices combined with concerns the Chinese domestic consumer market is coming off the boil is causing a rethink in banking quarters. BNZ has lowered its forecast for the 2015/2016 season to $4.70 kg/milk solids. ANZ has also moved and other banks will probably soon follow suit.

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But what really counts are the strategic decisions around the Fonterra board table in the coming weeks.

Fonterra chief executive Theo Spierings has been in Europe extending the co-operative's global footprint with the opening of a plant in the Netherlands.

The opening was attended by His Majesty King Willem-Alexander of the Netherlands, as well as Fonterra chairman John Wilson and Jan Anker of Dutch cheese-maker Royal A-ware Food Group.

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It is a big move for Fonterra: The first time it has opened a wholly owned and operated ingredients plant in Europe, processing one billion litres of milk each year, and producing 5000 metric tonnes of whey protein and 25,000 metric tonnes of lactose annually.

It's clearly part of the international strategy that Spierings has spearheaded. He has pointed to Fonterra's substantial intellectual property in manufacturing functional whey protein ingredients as a key driver in the new partnership: "Having a high-quality, high-volume source based in Europe will allow us to commercialise these innovations for our customers all over the world."

Heerenveen consists of two plants side by side; A-ware's plant produces cheese for its customers in Europe, while Fonterra's plant processes the whey and lactose from A-ware's plant, as by-products of the cheese-making process.

Fonterra says it will increase its chances in a globally traded whey protein and lactose market that is worth more than $2.7 billion in 2014.

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Spierings and Wilson would have welcomed the opportunity to get offshore and expand Fonterra's business at a time when the domestic focus has been on the downside.

The company restructuring that Fonterra embarked on before the top brass left for Europe is working through. At a "Big Wednesday" meeting a consultation process for the support staff was introduced. Once that is finalised and the future workforce nailed, the attention will turn to the management ranks.

Word is that the restructuring is likely to involve considerably more casualties than the hundreds that Spierings inadvertently hinted at in a radio interview.

From a farmer perspective, what matters is whether the co-operative will also lower its existing payout forecast of $5.25 kg/milk solids for the coming year.

If that occurs the Reserve Bank can be expected to move further with its accommodative interest rates easing policy.

One plus is that an exporter-friendly Kiwi dollar is helping soften the impact of poor dairy prices.

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But the impact of the price trough has been exacerbated by the fact that the current dairy prices are below the cost of production.

Economists expect the impact of low prices to kick in, leading to a slowdown in production growth next year.

Cameron Bagrie, chief economist at ANZ (NZ) sends a warning that lower dairy prices will knock more off our terms of trade than the Reserve Bank has been projecting.

Bagrie says that will be a bigger economic hit and means there is more work for monetary policy to do to stabilise the economy.

What he hasn't done is mention the R word.

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