KEY POINTS:
Farmers and other growers on the East Coast of the North Island are preparing for a return to drought conditions as the region dries out.
"We have had two winter droughts, now we are faced with a third dry spring, low returns, rising costs and to cap it off a world monetary crisis that has created enormous uncertainty," said Gisborne/Wairoa Federated Farmers provincial president, Hamish Cave.
Spring weather data released this week showed rainfall was less than half of normal in parts of Gisborne and Hawke's Bay.
Gisborne received 50mm of rain in the three months to November 30, 24 per cent of normal and the lowest level since 1905.
Wairoa, in northern Hawke's Bay received 117mm, 42 per cent of normal, but in central Hawke's Bay, Waipawa had only 60mm, 31 per cent of normal and its lowest spring rainfall since the end of World War 2.
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) said that eastern areas from Gisborne to Otago have racked up "significant soil moisture deficits" with similarly low rainfalls in south Canterbury and falls of between 50 per cent and 80 per cent of normal in Marlborough, Canterbury and Otago.
Niwa climate scientist Andrew Tait said today it was likely patterns of anticyclones to the east of the North Island - with lower rainfalls in the east of the country - would persist over the summer.
"We've got an 80 per cent probability that rain will be normal or below," he said. There was only a 20 per cent chance of the above-normal rainfall which would be needed to recharge the low soil moisture levels.
In many areas there was a deficit of 30mm - 50mm in the top soil layers - which was the amount of extra rain, above normal levels, farmers would need to get back to the usual soil moisture.
Dr Tait said there were differing technical definitions of a drought, but for farmers the crucial issue would be the soil moisture levels.
"It's certainly drier than normal going into summer and chances of it continuing dry are high enough that people living off the land need to think serious about whatever adaptation strategies they have for such circumstances."
Now farmers on East Coast are being advised not to delay in seeking help.
Mr Cave said it was a difficult situation for farmers.
"We thought this was going to be the season to catch up on the previous two or three."
Through spring, forecasts of rain had come to little or nothing so farmers needed to continue destocking.
"Those farmers who have yet to make a plan ... need to do so now and stick to it," Mr Cave said.
East Coast Rural Support Trust coordinator David Scott said there were people in terrible difficulty after year-on-year droughts.
"They have gone from nil cashflow to limited cashflow and back to nothing," he said. If the spring drought continued, its economic impact would spread through the business community.
An accountant, Chris Torrie, said in the past droughts farmers who made quick decisions profited from those decisions not only in that year, but in the next year as they protected their capital stock from the full effects of the drought.
Regular updating of budgets would be essential: "We are currently in some rapidly changing times ... knowledge of those changes becomes even more important to decision-making."
- NZPA
