Extreme weather predictions for future

Cars lay abandoned on State Highway 5, the Napier-Taupo highway, after becoming stuck in snow. Photo / Alan Gibson

I see in an article in the Herald today the weather is predicted to become more extreme in the future. I'd have to say looking back over 2009 I think we're starting to see more weather extremes already.

New Zealand had its warmest August on record this year, followed by the coldest October in 25 years. We saw huge snow falls that shut the Napier-Taupo highway stranding hundreds of motorists - something that rarely happens even in North America.

West Auckland reached it's highest ever temperature back in summer and snow fell in Napier this winter, with snow to very low levels around Rotorua, Palmerston North, Masterton, even Wellington.

In October a cold snap resulted in Auckland failing to make double digits while just further south Paeroa only made it to 6. Very rare for October.

In Australia today temperatures are challenging the record books - see the article here.

With my travels across North America I've also witnessed numerous weather extremes. Nebraska had a high of 28 followed by a high of 1 in just two days in October. They had 40cms of snow, which is rare for them even in Winter, and this fell just 2 weeks after summer officially ended. Locals say it was the heaviest snow fall in quarter of a century - and I'd bet it was a record breaker for October.

Further east and Atlanta had major floods in September, the worst in two centuries.

Then just the other day in Toronto they reached 19 degrees - matching the record for November's highest temperature.

Now I'm in Vancouver and my family here say snow falls at the start of this year were unbelievable. Vancouver does get snow every year but usually only a few falls, a bit like Dunedin. This was non-stop for a long time, then this summer they had hot weather that beat the usually very hot inland province of Ontario.

It's very clear that we're seeing all sorts of extremes...but my comments above aren't scientific. Humans aren't the best at remembering things... we tend to fondly remember warm, sunny, childhood days and cold, or wet, winters tend to fade with memory. The human brain is wired to forget things we don't care for. But, in seeing the weather this year, it does look as though the weather is becoming more extreme.

Certainly plenty to talk about that's for sure.

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Philip Duncan

 

Pictured above: Cars lay abandoned on State Highway 5, the Napier-Taupo highway, after becoming stuck in snow. Photo / Alan Gibson