Kerre Woodham: This one's going to cost us

It's a hell of a mistake to make. From trumpeting the idea New Zealand would materially gain from signing up to the Kyoto Protocol, to announcing that New Zealand would in fact be in debit half a billion dollars is a very embarrassing volte-face.

Previously it was thought that New Zealand was such a clean, green country we would be able to sell off carbon credits to dirty filthy polluting countries to the tune of $450 million.

Now it appears the bureaucrats miscalculated New Zealand's growth in energy production and industrial emissions. Consequently, we'll be classed as polluters and we're going to have to buy carbon credits on the international market. And when I say we, I mean we.

It'll be the taxpayer who foots the bill. I'm so very glad I'm not the back room boy who had to knock on Pete Hodgson's door and ask him if he had a minute because really, this is a bad mistake and an embarrassing one for the Government, who, quite frankly, could have done without it.

Ratifying Kyoto has been an unpopular decision with a significant sector of the population, especially the farmers and the business community. They're the ones who'll be hit with the carbon taxes, so I suppose it's only natural they would moan. But they point to the fact that the scientific community is divided over whether global warming means the imminent end of the world or whether it's all part of the age-old climate cycle.

British scientist David Bellamy is in the climate cycle camp - in fact, he calls global warming "poppycock" - consequently he's been extensively quoted by opponents of Kyoto.

From what I've read, most climate change scientists say that while there is a natural cycle, the world is heating up faster than it should. And that can be blamed on man-made emissions. And the more earthy emissions from animals.

Where these scientists part company, however, is on the best way of reducing carbon emissions. Many of them believe Kyoto is a crock - just another costly, lumbering bureaucracy that's going to cost nations millions without contributing in any positive way to the betterment of the planet.

While I'm all for reducing pollution (who isn't?), I was amibivalent about ratifying Kyoto. It all seemed a bit trendy; the sort of fashionable treaty good lefty nations sign up to. The governmental equivalent of nice, liberal households signing up to Greenpeace and Amnesty International. And there was no evidence Kyoto would bring about measurable change, especially when the US and Australia weren't having a bar of it, and developing nations were exempt. But if we were going to make money out of it, why not? No harm in being a good global citizen and getting half a billion at the same time.

Now, however, it's a different story. It appears it will be difficult to extricate ourselves from this, and certainly the Nats haven't promised they'll renege on Kyoto if elected.

And Pete Hodgson says even if the Government had known we'd be in debit, they'd still have ratified. Which is all very staunch and stiff upper lip.

But he knows damn well the Government would have had a hell of a job selling Kyoto if taxpayers knew they'd have to stump up for the privilege of belonging to an international club.

The Government may well be one of the victims of global warming, unless it can weather the Kyoto storm.