Jonathan Milne: National plays Hide and seek

Pity National MP Richard Worth, sitting in Epsom chanting "we shall not be moved" like a lonely union picketer in a white-collared shirt and double-breasted suit.

All he wants is to hold on to his blue-ribbon electorate, but around him the world seems to be collapsing in a chaos of confused tactical voting.

Act leader Rodney Hide wants National supporters to give him their vote to give their party a coalition partner, but Prime Minister Helen Clark is hinting that Labour voters could tick Richard Worth to prevent Act's return.

Then there's National's Bob Clarkson in Tauranga, who has made such a good solo effort against Winston Peters that he may actually win the seat and do National out of a potential coalition partner.

United Future's Larry Baldock has already signalled that his Tauranga supporters, and supporters of the Labour candidate, should cut their losses and vote for Clarkson to knock Peters out.

In the Maori electorates, polls show voters will elect Maori Party MPs from the constituencies and Maori Labour MPs from the list.

Elsewhere, some left-leaning Labour supporters are voting Green to ensure a third-term, Labour-led government would not be reliant on NZ First.

The race between Labour and National is closer than we've ever before seen under MMP, and strategists for those parties had thought that would knock out the small players.

It has certainly hurt them: only NZ First and the Greens are polling above the MMP threshold with a paltry 5 to 7 per cent apiece. But NZ First, the Greens, United Future, the Maori Party, the Progressives and maybe even Act will all probably be back in Parliament - and the big parties will need them.

It has taken Labour a long time to realise that, unlike National which has been recklessly burning off coalition partners like rubber on the road race to the Beehive.

While Helen Clark has been campaigning with Greens co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons and Progressives leader Jim Anderton, Don Brash has not offered Act leader Rodney Hide anything that might be interpreted as a tacit endorsement. Hide was forced to ambush Brash on Lambton Quay this week, just to get photos in the paper of them shaking hands.

The Maori Party announced this week it couldn't work with National. The key issue is that the Maori Party depends on the Maori seats but Brash wants to abolish them.

United Future is unlikely to signal its coalition preferences before the election, sticking to its promise to negotiate first with whichever of the two big parties wins more votes.

But there are signs that Peters, polling lower than expected, will finally break with tradition and signal his preference between National, Labour and the cross-benches. He was back home in Tauranga yesterday, wooing his core vote at the RSA bowling club.

He too is determined that he shall not be moved.