Fran O'Sullivan: Testing times ahead for the major players in politics

Goodbye to Christmas 2005 - all those good news stories and lists of heroes that we have pored over in our annual escape from reality.

You know them: New Zealanders of the year; politicians of the year; businessmen of the year (very few business women consistently make top rank); sportsmen and women of the year.

They make our hearts feel warm and are welcome respite from the news game's focus on the negative.

But take a look around you. The bonhomie is already evaporating as children put away their Lego sets and Harry Potter's latest wizardry in favour of Roboraptor - and that's just the boys!

It is no different in the news business where bad news often makes for better trade than good news - particularly in the other 50 weeks of the year.

So instead of celebrating 2005's heroes I'm going to elevate the anti-heroes - those who nearly got there but were let down by fatal flaws.

Or those who are just more flawed - and interesting - than the Ken and Barbie types who populate the recent lists.

National's John Key topped many. Political pundits rated the chirpy National MP's performance as one of the highlights of the election campaign. The former money markets man is now rated odds-on favourite to take out Don Brash as National's leader next year.

But how real is Key's reputation? My sense is that Key has yet to be tested on major issues. Sure, he wants to cut taxes, and let's face it, that is a surefire attraction for all of us who do not qualify for Government welfare through the Working for Families election bribe.

But he has yet to show off the big-picture thinking that will enable him to present himself as alternative Prime Minister at the next election. Is he the politician who has the courage to undertake sweeping changes - like the Singaporeans, Irish or Norwegians - that Helen Clark won't (yet).

Has he really earned his reputation as a prospective Prime Minister? I don't think so.

The truth is that without the less than stellar performances by two of my 2005 anti-heroes, Key would not have rated so high.

But deep flaws in the performances of Finance Minister Michael Cullen and National leader Don Brash allowed Key's reputation to flourish relatively unchallenged.

Cullen created the tax-cutting gap by refusing to cut personal and company incomes rates in the Budget, remaining true to his fiscal Scrooge role.

But I don't rule him out for the long count.

By the time the next election comes round Cullen will have backfilled the tax-cutting gap with Labour's election bribes, leaving Key less room for manoeuvre.

He may yet draw on reservoirs of political courage - fuelled by the certainty that his wife wants this to be his last parliamentary term - to tackle head-on major tax issues like introducing capital gains taxes on property, which his predecessors lacked the courage to confront.

If Cullen goes down this route he won't be a hero to the many New Zealanders who are relying on capital gains from their "renters" to top up retirement nest eggs.

But if he introduces tax cuts at the same time he may still leave politics with his reputation greatly enhanced.

Brash is of a different order.

He was also promoted as a natural Prime Minister. He's too courtly to mix it in Parliament's bear pit, but that's not what let him down.

He entered Parliament with a reputation as a person prepared to confront the big roadblocks to increasing our national performance.

But he marred his campaign performance with clunky repeats of his equality-for-all message, which sounded like Maori-bashing, and, was right-footed by Clark on nuclear issues.

He failed to distinguish where National stood in relation to the Exclusive Brethren until tripped up on student radio.

Clark capitalised on his flaws.

Against Brash's dithering, Key was strongly on message - but was hardly tested.

Brash is unlikely to get a go at the top political job now, whereas Clark, who has learned to deflect public focus from her flaws, survives to implement policies which are less likely than those Brash was promoting to stop the steady loss of talent across the Tasman.

That's why Brash still deserves a rating on the anti-hero stakes - for having the courage to pursue policies that more wised-up hero politicians fail to address.

I had intended to make this column a Winston Peters-free zone until New Year in the interests of global peace.

But Peters doesn't need typecasting as an anti-hero.

He did that himself with his "Dirty Harry" challenge to National MPs who ridiculed in Parliament his contribution to New Zealand foreign affairs.

Peters still has more lives than the proverbial cat, despite having lost the Tauranga seat comprehensively to Bob Clarkson.

This anti-hero still pulled off the coup of the year by persuading Clark to make him Foreign Minister, a role which he will no doubt perform to great aplomb if he is not deflected by internal strife.

My final anti-hero is Clark.

It sometimes defies belief that a Prime Minister who has sacked or pushed out a third of her Cabinet for various political sins that she has herself committed, continues to flourish so well.

But to be a true political hero Clark has to put in place policies that really fuel New Zealand's growth, not just look after the interests of Labour's support base.

On this front she is still lacking. But if she wants to go out of politics as New Zealand's greatest leader - not just its best manager - next year will provide her biggest challenges.

She should take them.