Deborah Coddington: Key's dream run about to end

You have to feel sorry for John Key. Just when he was hoping the speculation about his pitching for Don Brash's job had died, there's his mug beaming at us from the covers of North & South and Wellington Today magazines.

To be fair, knowing the former's deadlines as I do, this story would have been started back in about October last year.

And Key didn't know he was going to be on the cover. Those unfortunate enough to receive this treatment (it can be the kiss of death) are rarely told in advance. If subjects think they're going to be buried on page 60, it's easier to get a nice, cooperative photograph.

So Key would have had no say in the placement of the story. Even if he'd refused an interview (something I don't believe anyone funded by taxpayers has a right to do) the magazine would have gone ahead and done a story anyway.

But this leadership issue will not go away, despite the fact Brash is doing a fine job outside the house. His performance in the debating chamber is still dismal and I now doubt Brash has the ability to improve. But as far as leadership talk is concerned, Brash is wisely ignoring unsolicited advice and continuing to be his unspun self.

Doing a poll of party members to gauge support would achieve nothing. Act used to do them. The feedback was good for a laugh but only a small minority provided constructive criticism and the others didn't have the guts to put their names to nasty personal remarks, so what was the point?

Back in the days when Helen Clark was making around 7 per cent support maximum, a poll of members would probably have put a popular MP like John Tamihere ahead in Labour's leadership stakes, but where would that party be now if the whim of members was rigidly adhered to?

In my opinion, there's Machiavellianism behind Rodney Hide offering advice to his mate, Don Brash. It's in Act's interest that Don Brash be toppled. He's made the National caucus look like a party promoting individual liberty (which it's not) and thus eclipsed Act. For Act to have relevance again, it needs a National leader who is not "Act's ninth MP". In other words, Key or Bill English. So is Hide really acting in his friend's best interest, or is he stirring the pot knowing from experience that the longer the issue bubbles away, the worse it is for the incumbent?

The best thing the National Party can do is rejoice that it has a number of MPs who could, in time, step up to be leader.

That's a problem every party likes to have, and one Labour doesn't have. When Clark trots off to the UN, who will be next? My money's on Lianne Dalziel - hardworking, fair, a leftie to the marrow, and someone who's already made her big blunders. Labour will be led by women for many years to come.

John Key's had a dream run so far but I expect that will soon change as both the media and nasties in National turn against him. Those who dismiss him as Bill Birch the Second, are way off the mark.

Birch was "Mr Fixit". A chameleon who went from "Think Big" to "Sell" before you could say "unfinished business". Birch droned on so much he'd get away with murder because after the first sentence no one was listening. If he'd announced National was about to privatise the conservation estate it wouldn't even have made the six o'clock news.

Key, on the other hand, is fresh as a newly peeled egg. He bounces like Tigger around the country being interested and interesting. Watching him on Paul Holmes' Prime programme just before the election, talking about what his hopes are for New Zealand, reinforced to me just how badly Act had lost its way. Key is one politician who can talk economics and finance in language that's easy to understand and relate to. Out in the real world, away from the artifice of Parliament and the Press Gallery, people like him. As they equally like Brash and English. Which makes this leadership issue all the more infuriating for National.

But right now Key is in an impossible situation. If you work hard as an MP, do well, and attract much media attention, pretty soon someone's going to start saying you could be leader.

When that occurs, two things happen. The first is you're criticised for your naked ambition. The second is others in your party - who've been in Parliament longer and see themselves as leader-in-waiting - must bring you down. Skeletons get dragged from closets. Pratfalls are laid in your path.

Those whom the gods wish to destroy, first they make famous.