Bob Jones: Fed-up voters may be miracle Act hopes for

The polls say Act is a goner. The question is why?

Every commentator has a theory ranging from blaming Rodney Hide to Don Brash's right-wing values stealing Act's thunder. The commentators actually care because there's an acceptance that Act MPs have been a cut above the norm in their intellectual contribution to parliamentary debate.

The polls also suggest the virtual disappearance of United, only no one cares because, its leader excepted, its MPs have been invisible and are generally perceived as flash-in-the-pan opportunists.

Tactical errors have been made by Act but surely not sufficient to wipe out a party which has made such a valuable contribution.

The dragged-out Donna Awatere Huata affair was unhelpful. The party's hierarchy campaigning against Hide during the early 2004 leadership contest left a poor impression, compounded by the public resignation of party founder Sir Roger Douglas when Rodney won. Rodney didn't help his cause by his ludicrous mantra-like chanting that he saw his role as making Brash prime minister.

This sycophancy towards Brash was pathetic, dating back to Don's initial arrival as a new National MP when Act invited him to its party conference and then promoted the proposition that he was effectively the 10th Act MP.

Once Brash became National's leader it was hardly surprising that Act lost support. Like the Greens, Act's supporters are ideologically driven and if Act itself was proclaiming Don as the Second Coming, then who can blame Act supporters for taking them at their word and switching allegiance?

This Don-worshipping was not reciprocated by the Nats, a decision they may come to regret in what is shaping up as a tight finish.

My view is that for many supporters, Rodney's unsavoury attack on David Benson-Pope over the nonsensical tennis ball claim, was the last straw.

There was a wave of sympathy for Benson-Pope with a corresponding loss of respect for Rodney.

Confidence is everything in combative situations and no one could blame Act MPs for having their tails down in light of their polling.

Now they simply hope for a miracle.

But don't dismiss that possibility.

This is a very odd election - arguably the hardest to predict since 1981. It's not difficult to envisage a situation in which, by polling day, the voters are fed up with it all - particularly Don and Helen. In such a scenario, voters will then turn to the minor parties which collectively are usually good for a minimum 20 per cent of the vote.

If Rodney stopped talking reverently about National and spoke more positively about his own message, that 5 per cent would still be there for Act.

Helen aligned herself publicly with the Greens when their support sank after the student loan interest announcement and, according to the polls, may have rescued the situation. It's not too late for Don to do the same with Act.

If he's smart, he will. Minority parties will decide who is the next government and in that respect Labour has played a far better tactical game.

Right now the polling suggests we are going to end up with one hell of a post-election stew of confusion and the MMP system will cop the blame. In fact, it won't be culpable because in this tight race, even under the old system we could have finished with an equally untidy situation.

Party loyalty these days seems a fickle thing and a government with a one- or two-seat majority will be vulnerable to a headline-hunting backbencher jumping ship over some perceived matter of principle.

A by-election would then be required but as Tariana Turia showed last year and Winston Peters in the early 1990s, mavericks can win by-elections.

My prediction over a month ago that the next government may only last a year, looks increasingly possible.