Election day waits as Labour plays the dating game

Prime Minister Helen Clark is still refusing to name the election date but Cabinet minister Pete Hodgson hinted yesterday that he knows when it is.

He also believes the public mood is turning back the Government's way, after a series of polls that put National ahead of Labour, and that wayward Labour supporters have ended their flirtation with other parties.

He cited anecdotal evidence but also said Labour did its own polling.

"In politics, always, in my experience, mood change precedes poll change," he said.

Mr Hodgson is one of Helen Clark's closest advisers on party and election matters, with Steve Maharey, Trevor Mallard and Michael Cullen.

Mr Hodgson and Mr Maharey attended Helen Clark's post-Cabinet press conference yesterday to push issues relating to the elderly - the theme that Labour MPs have been ordered to blitz their electorates with this week.

Last week it was education and the week before that it was health.

With National overtaking Labour in the polls, it is thought that Labour's preference for an August 20 election has been pushed out to September 17 to give the Government as much time as possible to recover.

It is still possible to call an August 20 election within the next three weeks. Labour is likely to be closely watching for firm evidence of a shift back its way before committing itself to the earlier date.

Asked yesterday about August 20, Mr Hodgson toyed with reporters, first saying "What shall I do - shall I rule it out ... shall I leave it in?" before saying he could give no indication of a date.

Asked if knew what the date was, he replied "I may do."

Labour is also looking for every opportunity to build over-expectations of National's tax-cut promises in order that they not be fulfilled.

Mr Hodgson also described a "slight mood change" in New Zealand.

He characterised the mood a fortnight or so ago as being New Zealanders saying: "We don't quite really know, or we're not actually that engaged in politics and we're happy to contemplate reconsidering our vote and we're pretty keen to see what our Opposition party's tax policies are."

The mood had changed to New Zealanders saying: "Hang on a minute. These guys [Labour] have been in six years. Yes I do remember this, that and the other that they have achieved in that time, on reflection. It's a pity I needed to be reminded of it but now that I have been, okay I'm prepared to acknowledge that and, yes, I do concede that if you value that stuff you ought to vote for it."

Helen Clark is speaking to senior citizens in Masterton today and she and deputy Prime Minister Michael Cullen are both talking to Grey Power this week.

Poll options

August 20

Why: To capitalise on mood shift back to Labour following the All Black series win and Clark's recent displays of leadership. Minimises National's time to sell its tax policy, and could act as a circuit-breaker, arresting National's momentum.

But: Reports of a recovery may be Labour exaggeration, and Clark might come off badly in the motorcade case due to run the first week of August.

September 10

Why: Allows Labour another month or so to egg on expectations about National's tax policy, then another month or so to trash it. A week following possible triumph in the Tri Nations rugby series.

But: Gives National a platform of three more weeks in the House (as opposed to one week for August date) - and it might follow a dismal Tri Nations result.

September 17

Why: Last reasonable day to hold an election, so gives Labour the longest possible time to claw back an advantage and National long enough to run out of steam.

But: It also give National 10 more weeks to raise fresh issues and haul out some old ones - remember Orewa?