Sonya Bateson asks: Will Labour learn some lessons from their failure and bring a real fight to the next election?
OPINION
The preliminary election results are in, and National’s going to be leading our new Government.
But was this election a win for National – or was it actually more of a loss for Labour?
Both statements are true at face value. National’s taken a clear victory over Labour and, together with Act and maybe New Zealand First, will be leading the country for the next three years.
But what I wonder is this: Did our country choose National because we approve of its plans for the future, or did we choose “not Labour”?
New Zealand appears to have a lot of centrist or swing voters; people who pick a party each election cycle depending on the way the wind is blowing, rather than sticking faithfully to their party of choice.
Look at how drastically the results can change from election to election: Labour had 50 per cent of the vote in 2020, compared to around 27 per cent today. And National went from 25.6 per cent last election to around 39 per cent today.
Those are big swings.
But what exactly is it that drives New Zealanders to vote the way we do?
It’s my opinion that election seasons in New Zealand tend to fall into one of two camps: they’re either referenda on the current leadership, or they’re popularity contests.
Take 2017, for example. Incumbents National were looking to be a shoo-in until fresh-faced Jacinda Ardern took the reins of Labour and, all of a sudden, the country had a larger appetite for change. To me, that’s a clear example of when a leader’s popularity swung the election results, rather than the performance of the Government.
It’s not that Bill English and National were doing a bad job either - rather, Ardern was interesting and optimistic. She was the very image of change, and that had enough of an impact on the election results to allow Labour (with Winston Peters’ help, of course) to form a government.
Then in 2020, we gave Labour a clear sign of approval for their handling of the Covid epidemic and Christchurch terrorist attack by awarding them 65 seats in Parliament – the only time since MMP was introduced that a party has had enough support to govern alone. Although, those results may have also been a bit of a jab at National’s then-leader Judith Collins.
That kind of support for a single party is almost unheard of in modern times.
And it’s for that reason that Labour’s loss of almost 30 seats in Parliament in just three years feels more… personal. Like more of us were voting against Labour, rather than for National.
There’s been a growing sense of disillusion with the Labour Party since 2020 – what exactly did it achieve with that unprecedented victory we gave it?
Labour was supposed to be the party for the working class, and yet the working class has been suffering under incredible strain from the cost of living crisis.
It’s times like these that you’d expect a left-leaning government to shine but, instead, it has felt more like the government took a “hold on and wait” approach, introducing temporary measures such as the cost of living payments and temporarily cutting petrol taxes rather than making any meaningful change to arrest worsening social disruption.
I’ve often felt Labour didn’t want to rock the boat too much and scare away swing voters with any drastic changes, which I think was a big part of their downfall.
And look at Christopher Luxon – he’s done well at bringing order back to the National Party after a chaotic few years.
National’s more popular policies, such as the scrapping of Three Waters and getting tougher on crime, seem to be popular because they’re undoing Labour’s actions, rather than bringing anything new to the table.
It’s going to be an interesting next few years. Will Labour learn some lessons from their failure and bring a real fight to the next election? Or will they again try so hard to win the centrists that they turn from red to beige?
It will be interesting to see whether National falls into a similar trap of tip-toeing around middle voters, especially with the influence of Act, and perhaps New Zealand First too.
I hope not. I mean, I think it’s a good thing that we don’t have the drastic tribal demarcation line between parties that you see elsewhere in the world (hello, United States).
But if we don’t move forward, embrace change and try new things, we will stagnate, and that’s not good for anyone.
“What I want is for New Zealanders to be reassured that we are going to deliver a strong and stable Government that’s going to get things done,” Christopher Luxon said in his speech on Saturday.
I hope he’s right and our new Government is going to truly work hard to do what is best for all New Zealanders.
Sonya Bateson is a writer, reader, and crafter raising her family in Tauranga. She is a millennial who enjoys eating avocado on toast, drinking lattes and defying stereotypes. As a sceptic, she reserves the right to change her mind when presented with new evidence.