Despite the Labour Party soaring at 60 per cent, PM Jacinda Arden told Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking that she always had a "healthy scepticism" about polls. Audio / Newstalk ZB
Opinion by Mike Hosking
Mike Hosking has hosted his number one Breakfast show on Newstalk ZB since 2008.
Listen live each weekday from 6am on Newstalk ZB.
Surely the irony can't have passed Greens co-leader James Shaw by when he laid into New Zealand First last week, having lost his rag with Winston over the comments around experience.
Three years of frustration came out of what normally is a fairly mild-mannered man when he talked ofthe chaos of New Zealand First. Of the policy that had been worked through, only to be killed at the final hour for political effect.
Yet, having blown a gasket on that, I asked Shaw would he do it all again? What else could he say but yes.
The irony being the frustration comes out of a system his party, more than any other, championed all those years ago, when they told us first past the post (FPP) was vastly inferior to their dream mechanism of MMP.
Further irony comes in the polls, despite what TV3 produced for Labour and the general acceptance it's a random number that wont be repeated on September 19. What polling has been constant on is the minor parties.
Firstly the Greens are in real danger of not making it back - and they know it, hence they are throwing everything at Auckland Central and the hope Chloe Swarbrick can up-end National.
She won't because Auckland Central is not a Green seat, it is a tightish race between the major parties and can be tipped depending on the quality of the candidate, hence Nikki Kaye beat Jacinda Ardern twice, and Ardern slumped off to Mt Albert and a safe seat she doesn't need to sweat defending.
Swarbrick needs Labour to cut her a deal and given they won't, she can't win, so it's the party vote or oblivion. And history shows that the Greens over-poll and under-perform.
And when you are polling at barely more than 5 per cent, that leaves next to no room to under-perform. What sort of irony would it be if the champions of MMP were the next cab off the rank to get eliminated, in the great MMP trend of small parties entering government only to end up out of office.
Greens co-leaders Marama Davidson and James Shaw - the party is in danger of not getting back to Parliament.
New Zealand First are even worse off, and I am not far off being able to predict they will not return.
I am not there yet, but at 2 per cent or less, even with history showing they over-perform on the night, it's a big over-performance, and I'm not remotely convinced Shane Jones, who has never won a seat, will suddenly do so this time, especially given his leader didn't win Northland last time. And even if you add the millions they tossed at the region through the provincial growth fund, they still won't swing it.
So who's left?
ACT. Why? Because they cut a deal - and what a deal it turned out to be.
Which is yet another irony, because of all the minor players this year, they will be one of the real success stories of the night.
There has been a consistent fightback of sorts from where they have ended up these past couple of elections.
While other minor players flounder, they have grown, currently on in excess of 3 per cent, that's exponential growth when you started at 1 per cent.
ACT has seen a resurgence under leader David Seymour.
I think the euthanasia success last year began the resurgence. And in a world where people like Jami-Lee Ross team up with parties that don't like electromagnets and vaccines, Iain lees-Galloway disgraces himself and Andrew Falloon destroys his career, good old David Seymour, at worst, enrages Winston with a few pithy one-liners.
But more importantly, he sticks to his knitting, works hard at profile, and offers, when given the airtime, a series of consistent and well thought-through ways to run the country.
Even if you would never consider voting for Seymour, you have to give him credit for keeping the third-party dream alive.
Which brings us to the ultimate irony in recent polling - barely a majority still want any of these third parties.
Newshub's poll numbers this week show 53 per cent want more than one party running the place - hardly a ringing endorsement. For National voters, its only 42 per cent.
If Seymour didn't have his deal, it's entirely possible Saturday, September 19 will see just two parties returned to Parliament… National and Labour.
