Election 2020: David Cormack - Sometimes strength can be a weakness

Judith Collins and Jacinda Ardern have locked horns in three televised debates. Photo / Newshub

OPINION

As the election campaign slowly, yet inexorably heads towards a conclusion, like a drunk person crawling into bed, we find ourselves at a point with very few questions left unanswered.

With all the craziness and awfulness that has been 2020, it's been a remarkably solid and steady campaign, albeit one that feels like it's lasted a lifetime.

When Judith Collins was made leader of National there was a lot of excitement about what sort of persona she might bring to the role. Initially it was a very flat, demur Collins, but as the campaign has worn on, Collins stopped listening to outside advice and even shelved her deputy, Gerry Brownlee, from billboards.

It became the Collins show and she looked all the stronger for it.

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Except she only looked stronger to commentators. After the first two televised debates, political "experts" would gather round and talk about how strong Collins had been and how she clearly won.

And if you were looking for someone who looked sharper on their feet, interrupted better and made their points more forcefully then yeah, sure, she won.

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Except a lot of people didn't see that. They saw someone who was practically bullying the Prime Minister. And people really really don't like that. National's polling showed that as soon as anyone criticised the Prime Minister it had the effect of driving that voter to Labour.

So while Collins has put on a perfectly competent show herself, the National Party has looked like a two-ring circus seeking out the third. And this reflects badly on Collins' control of the party.

Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins on stage at The Press Leaders' Debate at the James Hay Theatre. Photo / Stuff

The polling has remained stubbornly low for National. Allegedly their own internals has had them in the mid 30s for some time now but that is still well behind Labour.

The other big questions were would NZ First and the Greens make it back in. No support party has received over 5 per cent in the next election after governing, so for either it would be a major achievement. NZ First look cooked. The Greens were looking that way until suddenly they weren't. Now they're polling higher than they have in a long time and could possibly expand their caucus by an MP or two.

NZ First hasn't done anything differently or wrong per se. It's just the mood of the country has shifted away from their politics.

The only exciting questions we have left are will Labour get enough to govern alone? It would be best for New Zealand and for Labour if they didn't.

And what electorates are going to flip?

The ones to watch will be Wairarapa, East Coast and Tukituki. If they all flip to Labour then National is going to have a very long night, and three years.