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Home / New Zealand

Election 2020: Better news for National in new poll, but still well behind Labour

Jason Walls
By Jason Walls
Political Editor – Newstalk ZB·NZ Herald·
28 Sep, 2020 04:45 AM4 mins to read

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National leader Judith Collins during the live leaders' debate in Auckland on September 22. Photo / Supplied

National leader Judith Collins during the live leaders' debate in Auckland on September 22. Photo / Supplied

Vote2020

National has experienced a slight bump in the polls but is still well behind Labour, according to tonight's poll.

Although the party is up two points to 33, it's still well below Labour, which is polling at 47 – that's down one point.

That's according to tonight's 1News/Colmar Brunton poll, which also shows Act are up to 8 per cent.

On these numbers, Labour get 59 seats in the House – one short of forming a Government by itself.

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National leader Judith Collins (right) and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern during the live leaders' debate in Auckland on September 22. Photo / Supplied
National leader Judith Collins (right) and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern during the live leaders' debate in Auckland on September 22. Photo / Supplied

It would need support from the Greens, which were on 7 percent – also up one point.

New Zealand First are at 1 per cent – well below the 5 per cent threshold.

In fact, NZ First are now on the same level of support as the New Conservative Party, The Opportunities Party, the Māori Party and Advance New Zealand.

Some 11 per cent of voters don't know who they will vote for, according to Colmar Brunton - that's down three points compared to last week.

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Tonight's numbers are the lowest in 10 years for New Zealand First.

On the preferred Prime Minister rankings, Jacinda Ardern is still well on top at 54 per cent.
National leader Judith Collins is at 23 - which is the highest level of support for a National leader since Bill English.

Collins told 1News that her party was "chipping away and we're keeping on going".

"I think it's important to have the momentum," she said.

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Collins said National's and Act's rise was a reflection on what people were thinking.

"Our poll result went up, so did [Act's] – it shows you that more people are sitting there and thinking about the economy."

Meanwhile, Ardern said: "The really strong sense I get from people is right now they are looking for strong, stable leadership in these times," she told 1News.

"Now is the time for that stable Government."

Parliamentary seat entitlement based on the poll results:

Labour - 59
National - 43
Act - 10
Green Party - 8

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Preferred PM:

Jacinda Ardern - 54 per cent
Judith Collins - 23 per cent
David Seymour - 2 per cent
Winston Peters - 1 per cent

National leader Judith Collins during the live leaders' debate in Auckland on September 22. Photo / Supplied
National leader Judith Collins during the live leaders' debate in Auckland on September 22. Photo / Supplied

Collins would have been hoping her campaigning efforts have helped National close the gap with Labour in the polls.

This time last week, the same poll revealed National was at 31 per cent – that's down 1 percentage point on the poll prior.

Although Labour was down by 5 per cent, it was still well in the lead with 48 per cent.
That's enough to form a government by itself.

The Greens were on 6 per cent on the 1News poll, just 1 per cent behind Act.

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New Zealand First was well below the 5 per cent threshold at 2 per cent.

Tonight's poll comes just a day after last night's Newshub/Reid Research poll which also showed Labour well out in front on 50 per cent.

That was almost 20 per cent higher than National's 29.6 per cent level of support.

Political polls become much more frequent closer to polling day – from now on, new numbers will be out at least once a week.

Tonight's poll was taken from Wednesday until last night.

That means it will take into consideration how voters responded to National's agriculture and social policies.

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It would also take into account Labour's plan to phase out all single-use plastic by 2025.

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