Despite the Labour Party soaring at 60 per cent, PM Jacinda Arden told Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking that she always had a "healthy scepticism" about polls. Audio / Newstalk ZB
National may be in denial about its dreadful poll result last night as it attempts to convince the public it is a rogue result.
But several trends ring true in the Newshub-Reid Research poll, even if Labour's 60.9 per cent and National's 25.1 per cent seem too extreme.
Any rationalelectorate would punish National for the way it has mismanaged itself post-lockdown and reward a relative party of stability.
That is reflected in the poll: National is down and Labour is up.
The Act party has been seen as a presentable alternative on the right and would increase from one MP to four MPs in Parliament on the poll's results.
And New Zealand First has assumed a confusing position of an opposition within the Government, pleasing no one except it bedrock of 2 per cent supporters.
One thing is certain, no matter where the figures fall between National and Labour.
There is a disconnect between the way National perceives itself to have come through its recent series of crises and the way the public judges it.
National has had a sense of relief that after the failed leadership of Muller, it had someone as strong as Judith Collins to go head to head against the ever-popular Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern.
Jacinda Ardern during one of her press conferences during the Covid-19 lockdown. Photo / Mark Mitchell
MPs see the relief in the enthusiasm of the base and an increased number of volunteers. The caucus last week was told its internal polling has seen it rise from 35 per cent to 37 per cent straight after Collins' election.
It was before the Andrew Falloon scandal had been factored in, but it is accepted that Collins handled it quickly and competently.
The caucus thought it had made the best of a tumultuous three weeks, which would have some impact but not as devastating as the Reid Research poll would suggest.
That poll began on July 16, the week after Hamish Walker resigned for relaying private Covid patient information to media, and two days after leader Todd Muller resigned.
It finished last Friday, the week that Falloon resigned for sending pornographic images to a young woman.
National leader Judith Collins shortly after being elected on July 14. Photo / Mark Mitchell
One of the events on its own may not have made a big impact on the voting public, but the cumulative effect has eroded National's brand of stability and sound management which sustained it well into the 40s for most of this term.
The trouble for National is that whether a poll is rogue or not is a judgment made in hindsight and there are too few public polls to make it abundantly clear whether it is or isn't.
