Editorial: Why the US Midterm elections will have consequences

US President Joe Biden. Photo / Erin Schaff, The New York Times

Editorial

EDITORIAL

Despite its internal problems, the Ukraine war has demonstrated that America is still the biggest wheel in global politics.

Although the economic outlook, climate crisis, and the pandemic are issues countries have in common, different regions are also looking inward at present.

Europe is consumed by its regional war and energy crisis as winter nears. China is trying to recover economic ground as Xi Jinping seeks a third term as leader. Britain is floundering politically under its new prime minister. Iran is in tumult in the Middle East.

The US, at least while it is run by a more conventional leader and administration than the last one, is still best placed to grapple with multiple crises at once. They include ones that have an impact on New Zealand’s economy, cost of living, climate, health, and foreign policy.

US spends billions in military aid and its steady political support for Ukraine have been the rock beneath Kyiv’s pushback against the Russian invasion. The US has also helped to keep the Nato and Western response to the conflict reasonably consistent. And how all this plays out will be having an influence on US rival Beijing’s political analysis.

Domestically, the US has made some progress on climate change and infrastructure reform and has created 10 million new jobs since President Joe Biden was inaugurated in January 2021 - working with a Congress controlled by his Democrats under a razor-thin majority.

But things could change.

The US Midterm elections are now only three weeks away and will indicate where the country is headed.

The elections on November 9 NZ time are for all 435 House of Representative seats, 35 of the 100 Senate seats, and numerous state officials.

Traditionally, the new president’s party does not do well in the following midterm. In this instance, Covid-19, inflation and a potential recession add to the Democrats’ headwinds. It’s unlikely the status quo in Congress will remain, with a split possible.

If the Democrats lose both chambers, Biden could be a lame duck for the next two years with no major legislation being passed.

The battle over US abortion rights and restrictions at state level could be taken up in Congress.

Both parties have proposed federal legislation since the conservative-majority Supreme Court overturned abortion rights in June. The Democrats say they would enshrine previous protections into law while Republicans would seek a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.

Although the US has been governed from the political centre in the past 20 months, the Republican Party is still dominated by officials who support the approach of former president Donald Trump, despite the US Capitol riot, and the hearings into it.

Trump has had a hand in promoting some high-profile Midterm hopefuls and the Washington Post has estimated that 291 Republican candidates support his false claims about the 2020 presidential election.

If Trumpists fail where a more conventional Republican could have won, Trump’s hopes of running for president again might suffer. But the reverse could happen with his prospects boosted. There’s still the question of whether he will face Justice Department charges.

Republicans need to gain just five seats in the House and one in the Senate to take control of Congress and stymie Biden’s agenda.

How that would impact on America’s political direction and the US approach to issues of relevance for non-Americans such as funds for Ukraine, climate initiatives and the pandemic response remains to be seen.