Editorial: What impact is Russia's invasion having on energy goals and the planet?

Russia has about doubled revenue from fossil fuels since its invasion in late February - pulling in about €62 billion ($101b) from oil, gas and coal. Photo / AP

Editorial

The war in Ukraine is changing energy policies in Europe and elsewhere and could slow efforts to combat climate change, at least in the short-term.

Various governments around the world are trying to wean themselves off imports of Russian energy, but reducing supplies has so far increased prices, giving Moscow a cash boost.

On Saturday it was reported Russia has about doubled revenue from fossil fuels since its invasion in late February - pulling in about €62 billion ($101b) from oil, gas and coal - with the European Union taking 71 per cent, worth €44b, of the exports.

That's even as volumes have decreased. For instance, Russian shipments of crude oil were reportedly down 30 per cent in the first three weeks of April compared to just before the war.

The largest importers of Russian supplies in the past two months were Germany, Italy and China, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air reported.

For its part, Moscow is trying to use its supplies as leverage. It halted gas to Poland and Bulgaria last week, saying it was in response to the two countries failing to pay up in rubles - a new Russian demand after sanctions were imposed on the country. The wholesale gas price in Europe is up 20 per cent. Other countries such as Latvia and Finland are reliant on Russian energy supplies.

A CREA analysis said: "Fossil fuel exports are a key enabler of [President Vladimir] Putin's regime ... Continued energy imports are the major gaps in the sanctions imposed on Russia."

Gas shortages over the past year have spurred demand for the cheap but troublesome fossil fuel, coal, the world's biggest source of power.

The war now means coal around the world has become a go-to fuel as an alternative to Russian gas - even as the United Nations in climate reports says coal use needs to be phased out.

And this is even as the EU is banning coal from Russia from August and has pledged to accelerate its transition to clean energy.

Some analysts believe the longer-term outlook is brighter for increased renewable energy use but that depends on political follow-through on plans and investment flows.

Extra gas from countries such as Norway, Qatar, and the US can make up some of Europe's current supply needs. Several gas pipeline projects, including one linking Norway, Denmark and Poland are aimed at reducing EU countries' dependence on Russia.

The International Energy Agency predicts that carbon emissions from coal in 2024 will be about three billion tonnes higher than a target of net-zero by 2050. "All evidence indicates a widening gap between political ambitions and targets on one side and the realities of the current energy system on the other," it said.

Countries outside Europe dealing with economic pressures, including China, may focus more on coal, and more resources will also be steered towards military spending. Just in the lead up to the Ukraine conflict, defence spending was up last year - topping US$2 trillion ($3tn) globally for the first time.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade has said in an analysis the impacts of the war on New Zealand are likely to be indirect and economic with a focus on oil prices. It says "imports from Russia, which are mostly crude oil, have dropped to close to zero in recent months".

The impact on the planet could take years to determine.