Little argues that most mum and dad investors don't even use negative gearing - or if they do, they use it for only a few years until their modest property portfolio starts to make a profit.
Even if that turns out to be the case, it still represents a huge political risk for Labour. Despite the party's rhetoric, there is no easy distinction between the "fat cats" who are cutting first-home buyers out of the market and the "honest battlers" who are doing the same thing on a smaller scale as they save for their retirement.
However, the arguments from Labour's opponents need to be taken with a grain of salt too. The Property Investors' Federation estimates that the move would increase the cost of providing the average home from $6184 a year to $10,293, a rise of $79 a week. The Property Institute and National's campaign chairman, Steven Joyce, claim this could lead to higher rents and fewer rental properties. That might happen in the short runbut with a five-year lead time, the market could adjust.
If some landlords decided to quit, their properties would become available to other buyers, either as new landlords with lower expectations of capital gain or as grateful owner-occupiers.
Either way, the shake-up should take some heat out of property prices and provide a more sensible financial platform for the rental market. It falls short of a comprehensive capital gains tax, which Labour bravely took into the last election, but that is understandable.
Little has decided, probably correctly, that ending this tax break will be hard enough to sell as it is.