Editorial: Drop in crime figures only part of story

Police Minister Michael Woodhouse. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Opinion

Understandably, the Police Minister, Michael Woodhouse, has been keen to trumpet a 4.2 per cent drop in criminal offences per head of population last year. The 10,022 fewer recorded crimes in 2014 continued, he said, a trend which had seen that figure drop by more than 100,000 in the past five years. According to the minister, this reflected the Government's strong focus on law and order, and, more particularly, the presence of more police on the street and their deployment when and where there was a greater risk of crime.

Mr Woodhouse's words echoed those of Justice Minister Amy Adams when she recently trumpeted an 18 per cent fall in the total recorded crime rate since June 2011. That, she said, was well ahead of the Government's original Better Public Service target of a 15 per cent reduction by 2017. The target has, therefore, been revised to a recorded rate of 20 per cent by June 2018. Again, the message was the same. Government policies and effective policing, sparked in large part by the setting of the targets, were striking the right note.

It is not, of course, that simple. The targets introduced in 2012 may, indeed, have focused the police more sharply on results and clear ideas on achieving these. But the reduction would have occurred to some degree any way. Comparable societies are enjoying the same trend, with various factors other than policing thought to be responsible. Some point to home appliances now being so cheap they are not worth stealing. Others note the widespread use of surveillance cameras. A further deterrent is the tougher attitude to sentencing within the justice system.

Some have a jaundiced view of such statistics anyway. These, they point out, cover only the recorded crime rate. They do not capture the number of people who no longer bother to report minor crimes. The number of people who adopt this position can only be guessed at.

It is noteworthy, also, that the crime statistics do not show uniform improvement. Last year, the reoffending rate rose slightly, by 1.3 per cent, as did the sum of violent crime, which was up 1.1 per cent. The lift in the reoffending rate is a hiccup in a trend that has seen a 10 per cent drop since 2011. The picture is similar with violent crime, which has fallen 11 per cent in the same period.

Ms Adams said a particular focus of the police would, therefore, be the drivers of violent crime. There also needs to be an examination of why the initial success of extended drug and alcohol addiction services and expanded education and job training in prisons have not prompted an ongoing improvement in the reoffending rate. If the Government is to strike the right balance between punishing criminals and safeguarding society, there may be a need for more rehabilitation carrots.

Therein lies a major benefit of such targets. Governments will always concentrate on the most positive statistics, but, more importantly, the progress reports reveal where success is elusive or where it is proving difficult to achieve further gains. In such cases, it is back to the drawing board.