The most interesting response to Peters' pitch for Pike River votes came from Labour's leader. After Peters questioned the need for an independent assessment of the re-entry plan, saying, "How many more reports to the authorities need?", Andrew Little called his remarks "cheap" adding, "The difference between me and Winston Peters is, I wasn't sitting in a Cabinet in the 1990s that undermined our health and safety in mine regulations". It does not sound like Labour is going to butter up Peters this time.
Labour will have calculated that unless it gets more votes than National, it is unlikely to get Peters' support. On the two previous occasions his tally mattered, in 1996 and 2005, he went with the party with the most votes. Unless Labour beats National it is unlikely to get his support, and if it does win more seats than National it probably will not need Peters. Labour would be above 40 per cent and the Greens' usual 8-10 per cent is all the support it would need.
But to get above 40 per cent, Labour needs the anti-government votes that go to NZ First. If this election year continues as it has started, it will be an absorbing battle for those votes between Labour and Peters.
As usual, in public he will declare no preference for Labour or National right up to election night, but both Labour and National know differently. Regardless of bottom lines, he will go with the winner if his choice matters. Let us hope it does not.