Dual referendums risk stealing election oxygen

A question on legalising cannabis will be only one of many faced by voters at next year's election.

Two referendums looming over next year's election are threatening to steal the show but both Labour and National says they're going to be sticking to their knitting.

Act leader David Seymour's controversial End of Life Choice Bill looks likely to pass its third reading in about two weeks and politicians have opted to leave the final decision to a public vote during next year's election.

The legislation, which would let terminally ill adults request assisted dying, will be decided on alongside a separate referendum on legalising recreational cannabis.

Policy Observatory AUT director Julienne Molineaux said the lack of previous comparable situations made predictions difficult, but that the highly contentious subjects of next year's referendums were likely to prompt intense lobbying and make it harder for parties to get their core policy achievements and criticisms across.

"They risk taking up much of the oxygen of the campaign," Molineaux said.

"Mostly the parties won't campaign on these issues, which leaves them to interest groups and so the tone of the campaign will be dominated by interest groups."

Molineaux said that also risked highly charged campaigns bypassing traditional media for social media, avoiding fact-checking and potentially both energising some voters while putting others off if it got too intense.

"The question is whether the referenda can galvanise low turn out groups: people who live in more deprived neighbourhoods, young people, Māori. Are any of these questions likely to galvanise those people to turn out?" Molineaux said.

"It's not just what people think about an issue, it's about whether it's enough for them to turn out."

National Party 2020 campaign chairwoman Paula Bennett said there was no doubt it would be a noisy election and the plan will be keeping the message on core issues - such as transport and living costs.

"We're very cognisant that there will be a lot of information … It's going to seem very cluttered," she said.

"We're just going to keep it pretty simple."

But Bennett said while National would be focusing on Government business, she wouldn't be shying away from opposition to cannabis reform in the process.

"We just don't think the time is right for legalising cannabis … but we'll talk about it as we need to."

Labour 2020 campaign chairwoman Megan Woods said referenda in the past hadn't had a major effect on elections and she wasn't expecting anything different.

"National elections tend to be about who voters want in the Beehive and who has the better vision for the country," Woods said.

"That's where we are expecting the campaign to focus."

Victoria University's Jessica Young - an expert on polling on euthanasia - said support for assisted dying didn't follow demographics like other issues did and it was unclear what effect it may have on voter turnout.

For example, age isn't a predictor of whether people will vote for assisted dying, while rural communities are more likely to support it, and support is net positive across all major political parties.

Since 2002, support in every poll about assisted dying has hovered between 63 per cent and 82 per cent, averaging out to about 68.3 per cent in favour.

A referendum on the issue was called for by New Zealand First as a condition of its support for the End of Life Choice Bill.

The question for the cannabis referendum has yet to be set but it is expected to ask voters to support legislation currently being drafted.

That referendum was part of a Confidence and Supply Agreement between the Green Party and Labour.

Support for personal use of cannabis plummeted this year, with a poll from Horizon Research in August showing only 39 per cent of people intended to vote "yes" in the referendum.

That was down from 52 per cent in April, and 60 per cent in November last year.