Gary O'Donnell fears his milking herd will start to suffer. Photo / Stephen Parker
Mother Nature is playing havoc with Gary O'Donnell's plans.
He's among hundreds of Rotorua farmers praying for rain as paddocks dry out and milk production slows.
The driest November in 50 years means feed is fast running out on local farms and that means less milk.
Keen to cash in on Fonterra's big forecast payout this season, farmers instead face being penalised as under-milked stock increases the risk of milk infection.
It hasn't rained in the region for three weeks.
While restrictions on water use in Rotorua are unlikely because the city's supply comes from springs, there is already a fire ban in place in the district's rural and forestry areas and restrictions on lighting fires within the city limits.
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research is predicting rain in the North Island later this week which farmers hope will provide some relief. A sub-tropical storm building up northwest of New Zealand should hit the Bay of Plenty tomorrow, possibly bringing some heavy rain.
This year, 1025mm of rain have fallen in the region, compared with 1391mm during the same period last year. It could be the region's driest year since 2002.
Milking 630 cows on two farms at Rerewhakaaitu, Mr O'Donnell hasn't seen his paddocks so dry in nearly 40 years.
"It looks like the outback of Australia.
"We don't normally expect this to happen until mid-February."
In the past month he spent $12,000 on silage and predicts a production drop could cost him about $130,000 in lost milk solids.
He is already considering milking only once a day, which normally doesn't happen until late April.
DairyNZ consultant Denis Collins said going to once-daily milking could lead to udder problems in stock and a financial penalty from Fonterra if milk became infected.
Agricultural contractor Eric Cullen said a lot of crops in the region were not growing as fast as normal, but clover was starting to grow in areas such as Mamaku, which normally had high rainfall.
"I think there is going to be a shortage of grass this year and [farmers] will be struggling to find supplement feed anywhere."
Though Rotorua residents are likely to avoid water restrictions, Rotorua District Council operations engineer Kim Lockie is urging responsible use of water as dry patches lead to added pressure on supplies which sometimes overworks pumps.
The dry conditions could be good news for Rotorua's lakes, according to Environment Bay of Plenty environment manager John McIntosh.
Less water flowing into the lakes means less chance of algal blooms.
"With less nutrients going into the lake there is less growth."
However, as algal blooms preferred warmer water, lakes would continue to be monitored, he said.
- Rotorua Daily Post
Downpours and flooding possible across the day.