Dr Brash, they still like your medicine

Don Brash

Don Brash could yet survive as leader of the National Party, even if he doesn't get to grasp the reins of power.

Brash, 64, has previously indicated he would resign if his bid for the Beehive is not successful.

But party sources say the former Reserve Bank Governor has support from his caucus and party President Judy Kirk, regardless of the outcome.

Brash has earned credit after a campaign that saw National recover from its disastrous 21 per cent share of the party vote in 2002.

The party is also hopeful he would not have to wait a full three years for his next tilt at the premiership, with the prospect a Labour-led coalition might not go full term.

While it would be unusual for a leader to survive an election defeat, Brash might be able to follow Helen Clark, who managed to cling to power after Labour's narrow loss in 1996.

However, there's no shortage of potential successors - deputy leader Gerry Brownlee and finance spokesman John Key are both believed to harbour ambitions for the top job.

A comeback by Bill English isn't out of the question, with Simon Power also tipped as a contender for either the top job or deputy, and Katherine Rich as an outside chance.

The reluctance to replace Brash shows a recognition of what has brought to the party since his landmark Orewa speech in early 2004.

In many ways, this campaign has been National's first MMP election.

In sharp contrast to 2002 - when some candidate billboards did not even mention the party's name - National has ruthlessly pursued the party vote, even refusing to deal with potential allies in Epsom or Tauranga.

Brash has been the party's biggest strength - and its most vulnerable area. His now-tarnished image as "Honest Don" appealed to voters who were disenchanted with the perceived arrogance of the Clark Government.

But his lack of political experience proved a major handicap, and his political naivete became less endearing.

Aside from the well-rehearsed sales pitch of the tax cuts package, he showed a poor grasp of policy detail, contradicting his spokesmen over the logging of West Coast beech forests and the retention of Labour's universal health subsidies, and being exposed by Helen Clark on the issue of asset sales.

He denied knowledge of the Exclusive Brethren's anti-Labour and Greens pamphlets and then had to rely on semantics for his defence.

But Brash now stands at the head of a resurgent opposition, with its potency increased in proportion to its leader's competence.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY