JIM EAGLES reports on the implications for the labour market of an ongoing decline in newspaper job advertising.
The number of job advertisements in major newspapers fell 8 per cent last month - the biggest decline in more than two years - raising concerns that unemployment may be about to climbagain.
The figures, due to be announced today, represent the fourth consecutive monthly fall in the ANZ Job Ads survey, which is now 16 per cent below the peak recorded in July.
The ANZ Bank's chief economist, David Drage, said the implications for the labour market were "concerning."
A fall in the number of job ads was not always matched by lower employment, he said.
"However, four consecutive monthly declines in national job advertising levels is uncommon."
The last time it happened was in mid-1966 and "following this there was some contraction in the number of people employed".
Statistics New Zealand's Household Labour Force survey for the September quarter had unemployment at 5.2 per cent, its lowest level for 12 years.
But Mr Drage said the trends in job advertising "suggest that employment growth is slowing and may even have stalled".
"Given the magnitude of the latest fall, we would not be surprised to see employment decline in the December quarter."
Mr Drage said it was apparent that business confidence had suffered in the uncertain economic environment since September 11.
"Many firms are starting to feel the impact of a slowing world economy via weaker offshore demand, lower export prices and fewer overseas tourists," he said.
"This is likely to be limiting the willingness of businesses to take on more workers."
The biggest drop in job advertisements - 15.4 per cent - was recorded in Christchurch but the level is still slightly above that of a year before.
Auckland had a fall of 6.5 per cent, its fifth monthly decline, and the level is now 17.3 per cent below those 12 months ago.
Employment advertising in the Waikato changed little last month and is still on a par with the same time last year.
