NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / New Zealand

Decline in voter turnout alarming

By Dr Therese Arseneau
NZME. regionals·
9 Oct, 2014 10:46 PM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Dr Therese Arseneau

Dr Therese Arseneau

Voting is critical to our democracy's good health writes Dr Therese Arseneau of Canterbury University.

Elections are important. They give voters an equal say in electing the decision- makers.
Elections are also when elected representatives are held to account by the people they represent. In New Zealand our elections have
an added importance.

Unlike most other modern democracies, our Parliament is sovereign. It does not share power with an upper house or state governments.

It is not limited by an entrenched constitution or Bill of Rights enforced by the courts using judicial review.

Popular control through triennial elections is the only formal check on New Zealand's Parliament, so voting is critical to our democracy's good health.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Yet in the 2011 general election around 30 per cent of New Zealanders who were eligible to vote did not. Although a record low, this was in keeping with a long term trend of declining voter turnout.

We are not alone in this but our turnout decline is particularly sharp, especially in the last three decades -f rom 89 per cent in 1981 to 69 per cent in 2011.

Age is a key factor as younger voters tend to vote less than older ones.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

According to Professor Jack Vowles, only 41 per cent of under-30 year olds enrolled and voted in the last election in contrast to the 72 per cent turnout for those over 30.

What is more, the turnout rate for young voters is declining steeply -a 20 per cent drop since the 1996 election.

New Zealand's falling turnout is being driven by a generational change in voting patterns.
Each new generation is less likely to vote than the previous one, not only when they are young but also as they age.

The context of the election is another important factor: turnout tends to be higher when the election is thought to be close and lower when it is seen as a 'foregone conclusion'.
Hence turnout was up in 2005 and down in 2011.

But how does the voter gauge when an election is close in an MMP election? The experience of 2011 provides some important lessons.

With polling showing National well ahead of Labour through- out the campaign, it was widely assumed that National would 'win' -easily.

The prevailing theory is this led to National supporters staying home because they believed their votes 'weren't needed', and Labour supporters not voting because the election was already lost.

If this was the case, then these voters misunderstood MMP.

In MMP there is no such thing as an unneeded vote.

Every vote counts towards a party's seat total. What's more, coming second in the party vote, even by a reasonable margin, does not necessarily mean the election is lost.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The fundamental principle of our Westminster parliamentary system is that the government must maintain 'the confidence of the House'.

This means the government is formed by the party or grouping of parties that can muster a working majority in Parliament. And while, so far, under MMP this governing bloc has been led by the largest party in Parliament, it doesn't have to be.

MMP elections are not ad rag race to the finish line between the two leading parties. It is misleading then to simply focus on the gap between National and Labour; with MMP it is more important to view the support for possible governing coalitions.

The success of the whole coalition of parties, including its smaller ones, is crucial to winning the election and governing. So what does all this mean for you as a voter heading into Election Day?

First, it is a risky business under MMP to assume a' foregone conclusion' and make the decision not to vote, especially based on the polling of National and Labour alone.

Second, in an MMP election it is important to think in terms of potential governing blocs.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

This makes MMP election results more difficult to predict, especially if polling doesn't capture well the likely outcome for the medium and smaller sized parties.

Finally, as a result, MMP election results are often closer than they appear to be during the campaign.

Election campaigns typically throw up some surprises and the 2014 campaign has certainly had its fair share of these.
These surprises can make elections unpredictable affairs. One thing is certain though -t his election could be decided not only by how people vote, but also by whether they vote.

Dr Therese Arseneau is a political scientist and a Senior Fellow in the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Canterbury.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from New Zealand

New Zealand

Are you $8 million richer? The numbers are in for tonight's Lotto jackpot

05 Jul 08:19 AM
Auckland

Person seriously injured falling from vehicle in Pokeno crash

05 Jul 08:16 AM
New Zealand

'Very sad and tragic': Baby found critically hurt at house dies, homicide probe launched

05 Jul 06:33 AM

There’s more to Hawai‘i than beaches and buffets – here’s how to see it differently

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from New Zealand

Are you $8 million richer? The numbers are in for tonight's Lotto jackpot

Are you $8 million richer? The numbers are in for tonight's Lotto jackpot

05 Jul 08:19 AM

Lotto’s First Division prize is worth $1m and Strike Four is worth a cool $400,000.

Person seriously injured falling from vehicle in Pokeno crash

Person seriously injured falling from vehicle in Pokeno crash

05 Jul 08:16 AM
'Very sad and tragic': Baby found critically hurt at house dies, homicide probe launched

'Very sad and tragic': Baby found critically hurt at house dies, homicide probe launched

05 Jul 06:33 AM
Brazen hammer heist: Police hunt jewel thief, staff distressed after store raid

Brazen hammer heist: Police hunt jewel thief, staff distressed after store raid

05 Jul 05:11 AM
From early mornings to easy living
sponsored

From early mornings to easy living

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP