Latest tracking models show Cyclone Vaianu on a path over Hawke’s Bay on Sunday afternoon, but a MetService meteorologist says there’s still time for the weather system to change course.
Heavy rain, strong winds, big waves and coastal inundation are likely for the region on Sunday and into Monday.
Cyclone Vaianu is currently a category 2 system in the tropics and is forecast to move gradually south to southeast as it crosses the North Island on Sunday.
On Thursday, MetService issued a heavy rain watch for the period from 2am to 6pm Sunday, with a high chance of the watch being upgraded to a warning, and a strong wind watch for 24 hours from 6am Sunday for the region.
MetService meteorologist Alanna Burrows said Sunday’s weather could cause the rapid rise of streams and rivers, surface flooding and slips, with gusts of 110km/h creating difficult driving conditions.
Burrows warned the weather system “could be very impactful for the region”.
She recommended tying loose items down, stocking up on supplies and checking in with neighbours before the bad weather hits.
Current tracking models of the cyclone showed the system moving directly over Hawke’s Bay on Sunday.
But Burrows said the tracking was updated every six hours by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre and she encouraged residents to keep an eye on MetService’s warnings on its website or app.
“It’s still four days away, so there’s still a little bit of uncertainty exactly where it will fall.”
MetService’s marine forecast was currently forecasting an easterly swell rising to 2m, but Burrows said that could change as the system moves closer.
Burrows said there were big waves forecast with the cyclone, bringing potential storm surges.
MetService’s Portland coastal forecast, which runs from Cape Runaway to Cape Turnagain and about 100km out to sea, showed northeast 65km/h (35-knot) winds, rising to 83km/h and high seas for a time, with heavy northeast swells.
In a statement on Facebook, Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence said it was keeping a close watch on the situation and would provide updates as necessary.
Hawke’s Bay Regional Council said on Wednesday it was focused on the situation.
“We are closely monitoring weather forecasts, and river mouths, deploying additional generators and pumps, reviewing flood response procedures, and staying in regular contact with MetService and Civil Defence Emergency Management, and other councils,” the council said in a statement.
The council was undertaking maintenance work on the Wairoa River bar and reopening the Tukituki River mouth as a precautionary measure.
“We will continue to update the community as more information becomes available.”
The Port of Napier is expected to be closed to shipping for almost two days because of the forecast for Cyclone Vaianu heading towards the east coast over the weekend.
Napier Port Co early on Thursday afternoon, when Napier was enjoying a cloudless, summery day, issued an advisory saying that based on “current forecasts and internal planning” there would be no vessels in port between late Saturday afternoon and noon on Monday.
“While there is still some uncertainty, around the system’s exact track and intensity, current guidance indicates it is likely to bring strong winds, heavy rain, and rough sea conditions to Hawke’s Bay,” the advisory said.
“Based on current forecasts and internal planning, we have updated our forward schedule to reflect expected disruption to marine operations, as a safety precaution.”
It said the situation is being monitored and reviewed as more accurate forecasts become available.
The last ship scheduled to leave is container vessel the CMA CGM Ouvea, set for departure by 4pm on Saturday, and three arrivals are scheduled for early Monday afternoon.