Crisis for the aged looming

By ANNE GIBSON and ALAN PERROTT

A crisis in home ownership levels could spell doom for New Zealand's rapidly ageing population, particularly for the Pacific Island and Maori communities, says a report released yesterday.

The Centre for Housing Research released a report from Victoria University's New Zealand Institute for Research on Aging and Business and Economic Research calling for a strategy for housing elderly people.

After the report was released, the centre warned of an impending crisis brought about by an ageing population plus a decrease in the number of homeowners, meaning today's middle-aged renters would be most at risk in future. "Over the last 10 years, there has been a decline in home ownership among older Maori and Pacific people," the centre said. "This is less evident for the Pakeha group but falling levels of home ownership among people in mid-life raises questions for the future."

The centre warned that women in the 80-plus age bracket would be hardest hit by the crisis.

Women dominated the older population and were more likely to experience more years with a disability, be unpartnered and living alone at the end of their lives, he said, making them the most vulnerable group.

Although 67 per cent of New Zealanders own their homes today, Housing New Zealand said earlier this year that the level was dropping rapidly and expected to be down to just 62 per cent by 2011, resulting in 80,000 fewer homeowners than today.

In 1986, 73 per cent of New Zealanders owned their own homes.

Associate Professor Judith Davey, director of the New Zealand Institute for Research on Aging, called for urgent action.

"We need to be planning now to ensure that adequate and appropriate housing is available as the population ages," she said, warning that there was no single solution to the problem and predicting that many low-income elderly people would have to rent.

Petina Turner, executive director of the Retirement Villages Association, predicted rapid growth within the industry over the next 20 years. "I would expect proprietors would take advantage of the ageing population. They would be mad not to."

She said members tour the United States to see how communities cope with growing numbers of retirees and changing expectations on villages.

Grey Power national president Graham Stairmand, predicted a nasty shock awaits many baby boomers. "A lot of that generation have a "me first" and "live it while you can" philosophy, and fair enough. But a large percentage will eventually find they are struggling to either buy a home or find the cash dollars to enter a village."

Housing Minister Steve Maharey said a new housing strategy would be released later this year which would discuss the future housing of older people to meet anticipated demand and diversity.

Problems ahead

* By 2021, 713,000 older people will be in private dwellings.

* But 91,400 elderly people will be renting from private landlords by then.

* By 2051, 1 million elderly people will be living in private homes.

* In the next two decades, an extra 61,400 older people will need to rent their homes.

The Centre for Housing Research