Covid 19 Omicron: Record-high cases expected over Waitangi Weekend

Daily Covid cases are expected to hit their highest point this weekend in the two years since the pandemic began as the Omicron outbreak takes off.

New Zealand recorded 209 new Covid cases yesterday. The record was 222 daily cases on November 16 last year at the height of the Delta outbreak.

Numbers are still far below earlier modelling tipping as many as 50,000 new cases could be emerging by Waitangi Day.

However, as pandemic-weary Kiwis seek a more normal life involving unimpeded overseas travel and no lockdowns, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern urged against complacency.

The threat of infection spread has triggered a warning to holidaymakers in a week which has seen Auckland once more become the nation's Covid hotspot.

Officials warned this week that travel contributed to the spread of the infection and said it was important people going away took measures to reduce the risk of both catching and spreading the virus.

One new analysis' target='_blank'>study yesterday found up to 1100 people could be in hospital at once if New Zealand's outbreak is as severe as Australia's.

Opening a new vaccine centre yesterday on Auckland's waterfront, Ardern said the Covid booster shot is the best tool available to protect against serious illness and encouraged the extra 1 million people who became eligible for their third jab yesterday to get it immediately.

Covid-19 modeller professor Michael Plank told the Weekend Herald that although Omicron infections have so far risen slightly slower than in many other countries, case numbers are still doubling roughly every four days.

"It is likely we'll see record cases numbers very soon, if not [today] then I think it will be within the next few days."

The expected record-high infection rates come as public opinion and Government policy have shifted towards living with the virus and its Omicron variant.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern talks with staff at Auckland's newest vaccine centre, launched to help drive booster uptake. Photo / Alex Burton

Ardern announced to great fanfare this week that the nation's tight border restrictions would begin easing at the end of this month.

It means citizens, residents and eligible visa holders in Australia will be able to fly into New Zealand from February 28 and isolate at home or a place of their choice.

Two weeks later on March 14, Kiwis in other countries as well certain skilled workers and partners and dependent children of Kiwis will also be able to fly in and isolate at home.

From April and July, the rules will be further relaxed to include most other fully vaccinated travellers.

Critics said the rules should have been brought in weeks ago and labelled the managed isolation system - in place for much of the past two years - inhumane and an abuse of human rights.

The shortage of MIQ rooms for returning travellers meant tens of thousands of Kiwis have been unable to return home, and some have missing seeing dying loved ones for the final time.

Business lobbies said the tight borders had also hurt parts of the economy and exacerbated troubles finding skilled workers.

Ardern and public health experts, however, said the move to delay easing the border restrictions had given the nation crucial time to prepare for the Omicron outbreak.

More than 1.3 million Kiwis have now had their booster jab.

A further 1 million became eligible for their booster yesterday, after the Government reduced the gap between the second and third doses to just three months.

Ardern said the change meant 92 per cent of double-dosed Kiwis will now be able to get their third shot before borders loosen on February 28.

That is especially important for Māori and vulnerable groups who may have only had their second doses recently, she said.

Plank said boosters were essential to give a high level of protection against Omicron.

"Data from the UK Health Security Agency estimate that, about three months after the second dose, the risk of being hospitalised with Covid-19 is about half that of an unvaccinated person," he said.

"After a booster, this drops to about one-tenth of the risk of an unvaccinated person."

New Zealand's health system could come under severe strain if the nation has as many Covid infections on a per capita basis as Australia. Photo / Getty Images

Plank said it was too early to predict how New Zealand's Omicron outbreak is panning out.

So far the average daily case numbers had doubled about every four to five days, whereas it had doubled every two to three days in some countries.

If New Zealand can keep the doubling of infections to the lower end of that scale, it will be quite good by comparison, he said.

"We'll also find that our red traffic light system and the measures people are taking are doing their job, which is to slow things down and spread out the load on our health systems," he said.

University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker agreed it is too early to predict how case numbers are tracking.

He yesterday released a report with colleagues Dr Jennifer Summers and professor Nick Wilson, finding that should New Zealand have as many Omicron infections as Australia, it could put severe strain on the health system.

The arrival of Omicron in Australia drove a wave of infections that peaked on January 19 with about 5302 people in hospital and 424 in intensive care units.

If those numbers were applied to New Zealand on a per capita basis, it would equate to a peak of 1107 people in hospitals and 90 in ICU.